25NL Pair and OESD vs. Maniac Donk

Chris_ca · #1 12-22-2006, 02:25 PM

Villian is 80/38/2.38
Will raise garbage preflop, bet with nothing, call with nothing, raise with nothing on any street. He is exceptionally aggressive on the river, stealing pots with huge overbets.

Is this good, bad or ugly.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Chris ($25)
BB ($27.64)
UTG ($195.47)
Button ($50.25)

Preflop: Chris is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Chris posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG raises to $0.5, 1 fold, Chris (poster) calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Chris bets $1.5, BB folds, UTG raises to $5, Chris pushes $24.90 (All-In), UTG calls $19.50.

Turn: ($52.40) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($52.40) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $52.40

AceLuby · #2 12-22-2006, 02:31 PM

This piece of advice is pure gold:

You don't have to play every draw you flop

Your TP is never good against this raise and you might be drawing to 6 outs instead of 8 (clubs) and your 2 pr puts 4 to the str8. I fold to the big resistance. If he's being super aggro I would wait for a bigger hand/bigger flop because he's just waiting to give you $$$$. I'd fold the flop.

Javanewt · #3 12-22-2006, 02:33 PM

I think I would have waited for a better spot. I hope it held up.

Chris_ca · #4 12-22-2006, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This piece of advice is pure gold:

You don't have to play every draw you flop

Your TP is never good against this raise and you might be drawing to 6 outs instead of 8 (clubs) and your 2 pr puts 4 to the str8. I fold to the big resistance. If he's being super aggro I would wait for a bigger hand/bigger flop because he's just waiting to give you $$$$. I'd fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You want to fold a draw and top pair, getting great implied odds against someone who will go to the felt with middle pair here. He's a maniac remember.

I think I'm a solid favorite against his range here, because his range includes absolutely nothing.

SirNeb · #5 12-22-2006, 02:42 PM

This is how you should think about this situation. You are risking 25 for a pot of 8. You are definitely overbetting the pot here. I won't go into fold equity, but as far as the pot goes. You are risking 25 for 8*(1/3). So when you make this play, you can expect to win 8/3 and lose 50/3.

If you aren't clear what I said earlier. Every time you make this play, your EV is -14. You will only win one third of the time since you have OESD. Also, keep in mind that when you make such a play you are hoping for him to fold, not to call. And if you want him to fold, overbetting less than all in still serve the purpose. Say if you 3bet him(to semi bluff, you want him to fold) to 15, if he RR all in, you now have the odds to make the call. The pot will give you 3:1 odds to call. Folding there would be a bad move. Essentially, you might think going all in and doing this would be the same. But they are totally different because there is an extra folding equity on the 3bet and you are making a +EV play on the last call.

Ok apart from all that I said, the best play here imo is to fold on his RR. Yes, he is a maniac, but you don't have the odds to call his bet. You may call this and hope for the turn to give you that card. But realize that you might be drawing dead and there is a flush draw out also. So if he is on a flush draw, your outs are less. Instead of 1/5 of the chance you hit your card, you are down to 1/8. My suggestion to you against these maniac is to be willing to play stack with TPGK, you will win more than 60% of the time to make your play profitable against him. You don't want to depend on fold equity against someone who will call you 90% of the time.

I hope this helps.

*Edit* sorry, I forgot you have a pair and a couple more outs, but still it's the same. It's still overbetting the pot, you have less than 50% pot equity against any random cards, his range is really wide. And it varies his level of "maniac", if he can call this with nothing, then maybe it's okay.. but if he has any overpair, overcards. You are just risking too much against this easy villian. There are better times for make money from him.

CIncyHR · #6 12-22-2006, 02:52 PM

If villain will call with overcards, its fine. Your read seems to indicate this is the case. If he willf old overcards, but call with any pair just call his raise and reevaluate the turn.

Anybody who advocates folding this to his rr has no concept of adjusting to their opponents.

Chris_ca · #7 12-22-2006, 02:55 PM

I understand everything you are saying here but it is all based on the assumption that I'm behind 100% of the time. Once again, he could literally have any two here, his raise does not define his range much here.

Here's a simulation
713,790 games 0.141 secs 5,062,340 games/sec

Board: 5c 2c 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.6759 % 62.64% 04.04% { 5h4h }
Hand 2: 33.3241 % 29.29% 04.04% { 22+, A2s+, K5s-K2s, Q5s-Q2s, J5s-J2s, T5s-T2s, 95s-92s, 85s-82s, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K6o-K2o, Q6o-Q2o, J6o-J2o, T6o-T2o, 96o-92o, 86o-82o, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

Some may say that this range his too wide, but even if I narrow it, I still feel I have more than 50% equity. So I really don't mind if he calls. Combine this with maybe a 20% chance he will fold and its a solid play in my mind.

CIncyHR · #8 12-22-2006, 02:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I understand everything you are saying here but it is all based on the assumption that I'm behind 100% of the time. Once again, he could literally have any two here, his raise does not define his range much here.

Here's a simulation
713,790 games 0.141 secs 5,062,340 games/sec

Board: 5c 2c 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.6759 % 62.64% 04.04% { 5h4h }
Hand 2: 33.3241 % 29.29% 04.04% { 22+, A2s+, K5s-K2s, Q5s-Q2s, J5s-J2s, T5s-T2s, 95s-92s, 85s-82s, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K6o-K2o, Q6o-Q2o, J6o-J2o, T6o-T2o, 96o-92o, 86o-82o, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

[/ QUOTE ]

The question isnt whether he can have any 2 when he raises, that certainly to be the case. The question is will he CALL with any two when you shove. If he folds any hand you're beating, and calls with any hand beating you, its a terrible shove.

What do you know about hsi range for calling all in in a spot like this?

Chris_ca · #9 12-22-2006, 03:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I understand everything you are saying here but it is all based on the assumption that I'm behind 100% of the time. Once again, he could literally have any two here, his raise does not define his range much here.

Here's a simulation
713,790 games 0.141 secs 5,062,340 games/sec

Board: 5c 2c 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 66.6759 % 62.64% 04.04% { 5h4h }
Hand 2: 33.3241 % 29.29% 04.04% { 22+, A2s+, K5s-K2s, Q5s-Q2s, J5s-J2s, T5s-T2s, 95s-92s, 85s-82s, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K6o-K2o, Q6o-Q2o, J6o-J2o, T6o-T2o, 96o-92o, 86o-82o, 72o+, 62o+, 52o+, 42o+, 32o }

[/ QUOTE ]

The question isnt whether he can have any 2 when he raises, that certainly to be the case. The question is will he CALL with any two when you shove. If he folds any hand you're beating, and calls with any hand beating you, its a terrible shove.

What do you know about hsi range for calling all in in a spot like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, in an earlier hand I had JJ on the button and raised to $1.25. He reraised to $3.5. I pushed my remaining $17 and he called with A-3 offsuit. He hit an ace and stacked me. this should give you an idea how easy he will go to the felt with a hand that you would think anyone with a decent brain would realize is badly beaten.

SirNeb · #10 12-22-2006, 03:08 PM

You are right, if he is the type that will CALL all in with ANY hole card. This is not a bad play.

But if he is the type that will call with any pair, any overpair, any connected overcard, any draw. Then you got a totally situation. The best you can expect is probably 45/55, I would assume. Basically the assumption is that he is a maniac but not as maniac to go CALL an all in with absolute junk relative to this board. I would definitely like you to CALL his all in here than to MAKE an all in play. Because that's totally different situation under any assumption.

Plays like this have a lot of variance, I wouldn't prefer this against this type of villian. It's not worth a 50/50 on this guy, you can make money with at least 80/20 if he was that bad. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]