NBA Player Props

[alecb]

16 points and 6 rebounds (surprising number on the rebounds). 7-8 on the year, -5 units. Lots of action going on tonight and I'll share my thoughts after doing some research.

[alecb]

I just went on Bodog and almost wet myself when I saw the first line:

Baron Davis (GSW) Ov. 30½ P+A -125

Davis is on a very good streak and has gone over 30 PA 5 times in the past 7 games. What I like even better is he is really, really jacking up shots, going well over 20 shots a game recently. With Jameer Nelson injured, Davis will be guarded by Carlos Arroyo, who only seems to know how to play basketball when he's playing for Puerto Rico. My feeling is that even if Davis is off, he'll still shoot ~20 shots, especially with Howard guarding the paint but the Magic weak on the perimeter. My expectation is about 28 points and 8 assists.

This cries out as being one of the wonderfully soft player props and thus feel the need to bust it while it is only at -125. 20 units on over.

Dwight Howard (ORL) Un. 31 P+R -120

Howard on the other hand has had a very difficult December. While his rebounding has gone up, his shooting and scoring have dipped significantly. Even with Hill, Turkelew, and Nelson injured recently, he has shied away from being the offensive focal point. He is not looking for his shot and I don't see that changing tonight. This line would have more value if the Magic were playing a team that was not Golden State however. Golden State is a bad rebounding team and has no serious inside presence, so I will scale back the amount accordingly.

4 units on under.

Ben Gordon (CHI) Ov. 20½ Pts -115

The Bulls have won and Gordan has gone over 20 points 7 times in the last 10 games played. Frankly, the Knicks are the tale of two teams, with the inside guys (Frye, Jeffries, Curry, Lee) young and motivated, while the outside guys (Marbury, Francis, Crawford) looking for their shot but not looking to play defense. With Robinson and Jeffries out with suspensions, Gordon should be getting plenty of shots from the perimeter uncontested.

8 units on over.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
How liquid do you think these markets are?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea, but aren't the line movements with these props more a product of the low maximum bets than the number of folks betting them?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How liquid do you think these markets are?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have no idea, but aren't the line movements with these props more a product of the low maximum bets than the number of folks betting them?

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't matter. They are small volume markets. Its not worth the time to develop a method to beat them when you'll likely never get more than 2k of action over a ton of sites.


And you're right about the low max bets, which means its easy for someone to take the value out of them. When you can catch the openers and drop 3 max bets in 10 minutes and move the line 25c.

[alecb]

Apologies, by the way, for bad grammar and punctuation on previous posts. A lack of sophistication can excude feelings of sophomoric habits.

This was a good day for me but one that in the overarching scheme makes sense. Baron Davis thinks of himself as the focus of offense, no matter the talent around him. Riding him in the mindset of not only point guard, but also primary shooter, is a great play. Over 30 P+A was weak based solely on averages, rather than trends. The same applies to Howard. Coming into the third quarter, he had 13 points and 12 rebounds, leaving him a mere 5 PR from the spread in 12 minutes of play. For some reason (and if an adequate follower of the Magic, which I'm not, can step in and explain), Howard continually acquiesces to Nelson & Hill as the purveyors of offense, though he has proven himself numerous times over.

Anyhow, 3-0 on the day, 10-8 on posted player props. +16.2 units (a nice, dramatic swing for those following me). Appreciate the input, and I'll explain my love for a rather undervalued & unappreciated market tomorrow.

[alecb]

Well, I was really hoping for some player props on Kobe to come out, because I expect him to go for 40+ today. But I will resign myself to just picking on the game -- Lakers in the pick em'. Miami has looked horrible of late while the Lakers seem to be really improving. It's hard not to imagine Kobe dominating this game during prime time.

15 units on Lakers. 0-0 YTD on posted games.
10-8 on player props, + 16.2 units.

[dreamcrusha]

Check your book now, they should have player props up finally.