A Debatable Play At The Bellagio 15K Tourney

[Phanekim]

put me in the bad category. I agree with most posters here. Whatever I say they've already said. The only case you can make is that the other guy might fold because he thinks the other guy wouldnt make a move like that unless he got something.

I wouldn't have gone all in unless i know the stack has a very good chance of folding. In my experience, (someting that happened today)....They don't fold lol.

[valenzuela]

The original raiser has almost 2-1 odds to call( with antes and the SB) , the guy who went all-in did a huge mistake, I dont see how can this be close.

[goodsamaritan]

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Idiotic.

A bad EV move even with AA vs 72o.

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You saying he should fold AA there? LOL

[nath]

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Idiotic.

A bad EV move even with AA vs 72o.

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i'm guessing you don't exactly have a track record as a winning tournament player

anyway, i think the move is probably bad but not nearly as much so as other people think; the main thing is that he's almost always getting called and is never more than a small favorite, and $EV probably is a factor here. if it wasn't, i would probably move in given my short stack and hand strength-- i'd be much more apt to race for a double up and change after the bubble of a 15k event.

that said, the move becomes better if the original raiser can find a fold frequently, or if he's the type that's been really taking advantage of the bubble and would fold just to be able to continue doing so

[A_C_Slater]

If you got in via a cheap satelite and the $25,000 has a great deal of utility for you then it's a fold and it's not even close. I would say it is idiotic to push from that perspective. But if you are nearly a multi-millionaire, which you should be if you direct buy into a 15k event, than it's still a fold, but a push would be merely bad as opposed to idiotic.

[mlagoo]

open shoving would probably be good with 55 here. as it is, moving in after a 4xBB raise is godawful in this situation since he's getting looked up like 90% of the time (assuming "good stack" means like 150k+). the play could well be -cEV (particularly if the opener isnt a good player), and its pretty obviously -$EV.

[Carded]

Pretty poor play. He will most likely get called, then he is up against an over pair or if he is lucky a coin-flip.

[betgo]

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Pretty poor play. He will most likely get called, then he is up against an over pair or if he is lucky a coin-flip.

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Villain probably doesn't have much of a hand and the push may be slightly cEV+.

Open pushing on the bubble with 55 or reraising a big stack with 55 with a stack large enough to have folding equity may be good plays.

Obviously, while people often try too hard not to bubble, given the payout structure, at this point hero should be playing tight.

Hero seems to be looking at the strength of his hand, and the fact that the raiser is probably raising loosely, and ignoring other aspects of the situation.

[EnderFFX]

"EV wise was his move in great, good, OK, bad, or idiotic?"

You can't make this determination on the information given. Is this guy a pro who feels that 1st is the only prize worth playing? Is he an amateur who would just be thrilled with making some cash? Is he looking for immediate money, or life changing money, or is he ego driven, or a loony from an insane asylumn who happened just to bring his life savings in and thought he was playing a slot tournament and ended up getting lucky?

You can't make a determination if he is an idiot or not unless you know his goals.

[Shandrax]

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EV wise was his move in great, good, OK, bad, or idiotic?

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So the other guy got roughly 2:1 for a call and he had 5-5?

I'd say the move was idiotic. You can't semi-bluff someone who knows that he can fold himself into the money even if he loses this hand.

The potential caller has to decide:
A. What are my chances to finish higher than 51st if I fold this hand and lose 12k?
B. What are my chances to finish very high if I call and win about 50k additional chips?
C. Can I fold myself into the money if I call and lose?

The answers are...
A. Small
B. Much better
C. Yes
...so it's an easy call with virtually all the hands that he raised with in the first place. It takes a very deep level of thinking to put the guy on aces here and even then the call has "insurance".

Since the idea is to threaten someone else and not yourself with elimination at the bubble, this move probably qualifies for the worst play in Bellagio history.