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#31
12-19-2006, 02:37 AM
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Re: river bet?
"I'd at least expect a donk on one street or another. With a flush I'd definitely expect a river donk. "
imo, this is the key to the river. his inaction on each street swings this to a bet i think. ILP, hand combos don't give us much guidance here i don't think. in fact, hand combo-type analysis is pretty worthless when a loose player coldcalls in the sb... i appreciate your fervor though. i checked behind and won against 55. i do think it's close. 
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#32
12-19-2006, 11:18 AM
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Re: river bet?
[ QUOTE ]
Well If I had that kind of a read I certainly would bet the river, but his wtsd number seems reasonable to me(I realize sample size is small but i gotta work with something) [/ QUOTE ] Dear ILP, Work with the action of the hand!!!!!!!!!! You are being provided with a quite strong read by the betting sequence but you are too focused on irrelevant statistics and hand combos to notice/use it.
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#34
12-19-2006, 01:53 PM
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Re: river bet?
No one noticed this:
[ QUOTE ] Heres all the likely coldcalling hands you beat: 99,88,66,55,44,33,A2s. ... Theres 21 combos you beat. [/ QUOTE ] Since 99 hit a set, let's replace 99 with TT. This is not 21 combos, but actually 39 combos. 6*6+3. I agree w/ these arguments stated earlier: * He often tips us off to his AQ KQ somewhere in the hand * He will sometimes have a nopair hand and pay it off on the river.
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#36
12-19-2006, 02:07 PM
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Re: river bet?
When I have made a decision on a hand, you can rest assured I have completely and thoroughly analyzed the situation. Thus, you can conclude I am correct, and we don't need to discuss anything else. Value bet the river. Respet my authoritah.
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#38
12-19-2006, 02:34 PM
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Re: river bet?
[ QUOTE ]
One last thing. Of course I play well and make money at poker. Im sure most people on this site fits that description. Without poker I would probably be on the streets giving handjobs for five dollars a pop. [/ QUOTE ] Seriously, you need to get over yourself. I have it from very reliable sources that your handjobs are worth no more than tree-fitty a piece. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Seriously, I actually this river is pretty interesting and actually pretty close. Rather than try to weigh in definitively, let me suggest some things that I think should be weighed more heavily: (1) I think we be fairly sure that our opponent is only going to check-call or check-raise this river. I don't think there is any hand he has that calls the flop and turn but folds to this river. (The only exception might be AK.) So we really only have to figure out how likely we are ahead of his entire turn-calling range. (2) I think this type of hand is a prime example of an instance where you need to go beyond stats to increase your EV. The stats indicate that this player is likely to be a very typical, straightforward player. What you need in addition to this is some idea of what lines he would have taken in this hand had he been dealt QJ, AQ, AJ, JcTc, etc. Having information that is player-specific is much much more valuable than estimating how the general pool of players with similar stats plays. For one, even if those estimates are accurate, there will be a fair amount of variance within the sampling population. Second, as I think the debate in this thread indicates, coming up with accurate estimates is rather difficult. I would say that if we had watched the villain's other 100 hands with a mild amount of interest, we would have a better sense for what to do. With only this limited information available, I would have certainly bet my hand on Party. As I adjust to the new sites, I am more open to checking. It's really hard to say what I would do, because unless this were my first hand I would always have some small amount of player-specific info that would tip the scales for me one way or the other.
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#39
12-19-2006, 03:25 PM
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Re: river bet?
[ QUOTE ]
Okay guys no need to pile on [/ QUOTE ] ILP loves it when I do that to him.
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#40
12-19-2006, 07:16 PM
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Re: river bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well If I had that kind of a read I certainly would bet the river, but his wtsd number seems reasonable to me(I realize sample size is small but i gotta work with something) [/ QUOTE ] Dear ILP, Work with the action of the hand!!!!!!!!!! You are being provided with a quite strong read by the betting sequence but you are too focused on irrelevant statistics and hand combos to notice/use it. [/ QUOTE ] Dane I believe this guy will play all Qx's this way. Trust me when I tell you this. I have looked at this hand from every single perspective. You may not agree with how I have processed the information, but I have not missed anything.
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