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#1
12-19-2006, 08:00 AM
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100 NL | 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
Villain is 39/7/1.92 over 128 hands after the session. We haven't really gotten into a hand yet at the time this hand was played. Standard call?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com Hero ($105.10) SB ($101.95) BB ($78.25) UTG ($58.80) MP ($21.85) Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $3. Flop: ($8.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $8. Turn: ($36.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $60.25 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $60.25. 
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#2
12-19-2006, 08:01 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
fold turn?
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#4
12-19-2006, 08:14 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
[ QUOTE ]
Srsly? I have at least 10 outs against anything but the made straight... 16 outs vs. two pair, and I'm ahead of a lot of pair+draw combos. [/ QUOTE ] How often do you think he has some sort of combo draw?
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#5
12-19-2006, 08:33 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
[ QUOTE ]
How often do you think he has some sort of combo draw? [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. I'm not sure. But I have about 30% equity against his range of made hands. I'm obviously way ahead of his draws. I'm getting ~1.6666 to 1. Not sure whether that makes it a call or not. Would've been an easy call if he'd bet the pot, now it's probably marginal.
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#6
12-19-2006, 08:35 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
id fold turn.
looks to me like u have 13 outs most of the time, as this looks like a donkish 2 pair. sometimes he has a set and u have 10.
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#7
12-19-2006, 09:19 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How often do you think he has some sort of combo draw? [/ QUOTE ] Hmm. I'm not sure. But I have about 30% equity against his range of made hands. I'm obviously way ahead of his draws. I'm getting ~1.6666 to 1. Not sure whether that makes it a call or not. Would've been an easy call if he'd bet the pot, now it's probably marginal. [/ QUOTE ] Jigsaws, how did you come up with the 30%? Thanks
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#8
12-19-2006, 09:26 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
For some dumb reason I can't copy from PokerStove, but I ran this simulation. Board: 8h 7s 6h 3s, my hand 99, his range {JJ, 88-77, 33, 87, 86, 76}, and that's about 30% equity for 99.
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#9
12-19-2006, 09:30 AM
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Re: 100 NL || 99 overpair + OESD, overbet turn shove
It's just over 28% with a full 13 outs - less with 10 outs. Your pot odds are way to low to play if you're behind. You also didn't consider the possibility of his trapping this way with a large pair. Even if you think he's a wild bluffer, fold looks right because you'll probably get another chance at him later in a better situation.
Charlie
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