A Fourth Street Bluff

[HOWMANY]

[ QUOTE ]
If SB calls here I'd bet the river (non-board pairing) if he is good enough to fold his set and bad enough to trust you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was going to post, but I see I was too late.

[imashyboi]

I like this play. I would probably do the same move against a check on the turn too. I don't mind folding the flop either but since I'm closing the auction I'm more inclined to call. Just imagine if SB also had AKs and he folded beacause you showed strength on that flush board. Even someone with PP preflop would have a hard time calling this. I would probably fire again on the river if it becomes HU between me and another opponent.

[Jeffage]

I don't think folding the flop is good, but that's me - maybe I can be convinced otherwise. First, I'm getting immediate odds of 15-1, enough to call with a gutshot. Take away the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as an out, and I need 14.3-1 to break even. I also may be able to raise if I hit perfectly, an offsuit king or ace may be an out sometimes and I may be able to bluff if the fourth diamond comes in certain situations. Also, I think it's unlikely someone flopped the flush, but if they did AND I spike my hand, well, they will win some money from me. Not the first time.

Taking all this into account, I think a call closing the action is fine on the flop.

Jeff

[The DaveR]

Jeff, I think a lot of 2+2ers never fold when they know the other guy is a 2+2er, so HU I don't think it's worth it.

But I like it as a squeeze. Of course, you have to give up if MP calls the turn.

[Joe Tall]

As long as you bet in rhythm, I like it.

[SA125]

My first impression was I like the play. Thinking further through it, I don't like.

You 3 bet pf. You don't raise a QT flop with three diamonds, but like it when a fourth diamond comes off. Doesn't jibe.

Do they think you'd just overcall that flop in position with the A or K of diamonds? I'd expect you to pop it.

P.S. - I'm thinking a turn ch and river raise might work but again, I think the flop call sets you back for repping the A or K on the river.

[DeeJ]

The math says that if they both fold 1 time in 8, it's profitable. Obviously you won't get a decent diamond to fold, but if they think you're tricky and call you still have a few outs if you're up against a set. (And if you are, they are unlikely to raise) So yes, once in a while, this is probably a good play.

[benwood]

I think that it could be that calling the flop & betting the turn is correct for a good player like you that reads players & situations well but would be -EV for a mediocre player like me.

We all like to pretend to ourselves that we're good players,but you make more money by being honest with yourself.I believe this is important.

[DrSavage]

I hate the flop peel.

[Jeffage]

Good post.

Jeff