Pocket Pair with Folded Card Exposed

[masman21]

From a theoretical standpoint, what is the correct play to make with a pocket pair when an exposed card is a card that would give you a set? I was playing $5-10 NL and had pocket 10s UTG, I raised $45 pre-flop, a person who was short stacked and most likely moving in after the flop calls (actually wasn't too worried about their hand based on previous play, I think they were looking to rebuy or get REAL lucky). Then the person to their left folds but accidently shows a 10. The next person re-raises $100 more. I've played with this person before and have noticed a tendancy to re-raise with a big ace, not pocket aces just any AK, AQ, or AJ. So knowing if an over card hits the flop I'd be done with the hand unless the case 10 comes out. I folded, was that a bad play? Consequently, the one person did go all-in and lost to an Ace (the other person did have AK, btw) on the turn, however the case 10 came on the flop. Results wise bad fold, theory wise not sure.

[gull]

Well, it sounds like you were playing for pair value, not set value so it wouldn't matter much.

However, TT is always a fold for me after a reraise and rereraise.

[AaronBrown]

In this situation, you figure on having something like 35% to 40% chance of winning, which drops to 30% to 35% when you see the ten. However, that extra 5% you lose is mostly hands where you're sure of winning, whereas a lot of the other wins leave you uncertain. That means you'll fold some of them, and win small amounts with others. In fact, you have very few big win hands without a ten on the board, so you've lost almost half the big wins.

I think there's about $250 in the pot, with $100 to you to call. Let's say the short-stack calls, but is now all-in. That means it costs you $100 to see the flop with $450 in the pot.

6% of the time, the flop contains a ten. 44% of the time it will have all three cards 9 or lower. Half the time it will have a Jack or higher, but no ten, so you'll probably fold, but it's possible you'll get a check or low bet in that circumstance.

I'd be inclined to stick around. Depending on the other player with chips left, I think I can play the good flops to get my $100 EV back. A key is the reraiser is predictable, I don't have to worry about low cards or higher pairs. If I have to worry about those as well, and she's a good player, I might let this one go and wait for a better opportunity.