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#1
12-17-2006, 02:07 PM
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At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decisions
There must be a point where if the jackpot gets big enough, it would make sense to make some loose calls with pocket pairs and suited connectors.
For example, the jackpot at my card room normally hits a couple of times a week. Assuming an average of 10 full tables, 35 hands per hour and the jackpot hitting every three days (10 * 9 * 35 * 24 * 3) would mean that you have about a 1 in 225,000 chance of hitting the jackpot on any given hand. If the -EV for a given play is a fraction of a bet, if the jackpot gets big enough, the small but non zero +EV of the jackpot might be enough to turn a -EV play into a neutral or +EV play. Here's a concrete example. Say the jackpot is $100,000 and you will win half of it if you make an eligible hand and lose and you will win one quarter of the jackpot if you win the hand. On average, you will make $37,500 if your hand is involved in a bad beat. This corresponds to 0.17 of EV on every hand. However, the EV must be significantly higher for pocket pairs and suited connectors. Either I'm on to something, or I'm on something. 
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#3
12-17-2006, 02:17 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
[ QUOTE ]
Do you also only buy lottery tickets when "pot odds" are right??? Just wondering, 'cause I do. [/ QUOTE ] when powerball and mega million goes up to over $150million it's a even money bet so i do buy only when the lotto goes past 150.
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#4
12-17-2006, 02:29 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Do you also only buy lottery tickets when "pot odds" are right??? Just wondering, 'cause I do. [/ QUOTE ] when powerball and mega million goes up to over $150million it's a even money bet so i do buy only when the lotto goes past 150. [/ QUOTE ] Powerball/Mega Million tickets have never been +EV, after you consider the following factors: 1. Your chances of splitting the jackpot. 2. You will be paid in an annuity, unless you decide to take the substantially smaller "lump sum" amount. 3. You will be taxed between 35 and 45% on your winnings, depending on what state you live in. 4. The diminishing marginal utility of money. $200 Million is not worth 20 times $10 million to the quality of most people's lives. I did an analysis of a Powerball ticket's EV after the Jackpot hit $365 Million (a US record), and calculated that the EV was roughly $0.75. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#5
12-17-2006, 02:38 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
Thinking about it some more, since there are two hands involved in every bad beat, the odds are more like 1 in 100,000 which doubles the EV from 0.17 to about 0.35 for the example above. Am I way off here?
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#7
12-17-2006, 03:38 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
Agreed, but what I'm saying is that the EV of 72o is probably < 0.01 where the EV of 33 is probably about 0.50 if the jackpot gets big enough. The question is at what point does the EV get big enough where it turns a fold into a call?
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#8
12-17-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
[ QUOTE ]
I did an analysis of a Powerball ticket's EV after the Jackpot hit $365 Million (a US record), and calculated that the EV was roughly $0.75. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] its +EV and gambling is fun! and what if we actually win !! omg
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#9
12-17-2006, 11:12 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decisions
[ QUOTE ]
There must be a point where if the jackpot gets big enough, it would make sense to make some loose calls with pocket pairs and suited connectors. For example, the jackpot at my card room normally hits a couple of times a week. Assuming an average of 10 full tables, 35 hands per hour and the jackpot hitting every three days (10 * 9 * 35 * 24 * 3) would mean that you have about a 1 in 225,000 chance of hitting the jackpot on any given hand. If the -EV for a given play is a fraction of a bet, if the jackpot gets big enough, the small but non zero +EV of the jackpot might be enough to turn a -EV play into a neutral or +EV play. Here's a concrete example. Say the jackpot is $100,000 and you will win half of it if you make an eligible hand and lose and you will win one quarter of the jackpot if you win the hand. On average, you will make $37,500 if your hand is involved in a bad beat. This corresponds to 0.17 of EV on every hand. However, the EV must be significantly higher for pocket pairs and suited connectors. Either I'm on to something, or I'm on something. [/ QUOTE ] You'd also make a table share of about $3600 just for folding so I don't see how trying to beat 225,000/1 odds is going to be a good idea.
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#10
12-17-2006, 11:16 PM
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Re: At what point does the jackpot become a factor in preflop decision
[ QUOTE ]
1. Your chances of splitting the jackpot.( [/ QUOTE ] When the mega becomes so big that I see it talked about on the news I buy 10 numbers and I duplicate them (5*2) on the off chance that any of them hit I will get 2 shares of a split jackpot. Very bad but what the hell.
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