3/6 99 Hand

Mr. Orange · #1 12-16-2006, 04:41 PM

3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)

MP1 is 18/7/1.5~ 150 hands
UTG is 40/4/0.5 ~100 hands

Preflop: Hero in the CO with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 3bets, Hero calls, UTG calls

Turn: (7.66 BB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG bets, MP1 raises, Hero??

PF- maybe a questionable call but I figured it was worth a call with UTG in the pot.
Flop- Based his stats and watching him play I'm about 99.9% MP1 has an overpair. I call the flop ready fold UI on the turn.
Turn- great card for me until UTG bets. MP1 raises but I'm not really worried about him since I know I have a draw to beat him. UTG is pretty passive and especially given the action I can't see him betting light here. This bet really threw me.

BJK · #2 12-16-2006, 04:53 PM

I think that if you would have capped the flop, you'd have a much better idea what to do here.

This is going to depend on what kind of range you have your opponents on. You certainly have enough outs to justify a call, but only if all of our outs are good.

I really think I'd lean towards a fold here simply because I doubt you are in the lead anymore, and the chance is pretty good that you'll have to call two more bets to see the river. Based on UTG's action, I think there is pretty good chance that he caught his open ender.

This isn't an easy fold, but I think it's a fold I'd make unless I knew more about the opponents' tendancies.

Harv72b · #3 12-16-2006, 04:55 PM

3bet preflop. I know that MP1 has looked relatively passive preflop so far, but he's raising behind a loose limper, and even a 7% guy knows enough to raise with AK/AQ, maybe even AJs. Whether or not it gets the pot HU is another story, but you at least don't give the blinds good odds to continue, and as is you don't have a big enough pot (or aggressive enough opponents) to play for set value.

I like the flop play, especially considering that you did not 3bet preflop.

And a fine mess we've found ourselves in on the turn. You've picked up an open-ender, but then it's 2 cold to you in a 10 BB pot...so you still have odds to call 2 cold assuming you can get at least one bet apiece from them on the river, but the problem is that when passive Pete over there suddenly bets into MP1 you have to worry a bit that you could be drawing to 3 outs to a chop. On the other hand, there's no reason to assume that this guy couldn't have 54 (7 outs to a win) or possibly even 66/some two pair hand (a full 11 outs).

This is going to sound utterly retarded, but I think you can actually make a case here for calling two cold and folding to a 3bet...because I seriously doubt that UTG is raising again without the nut straight. Loose/passives aren't going to realize that MP1 obviously has an overpair and 3bet for value with less than the nuts, at least not very often. And if he does have the nuts, then we're back at 3 outs to a chop.

I think the only other option is to just fold immediately, and I really hate to do that.

JojoDiego · #4 12-16-2006, 11:55 PM

Preflop: I'd consider 3-betting because MP1 could be trying to isolate UTG fairly light, and you'll have position. Meh.

Flop: Good raise, gotta call. Also like your plan for the turn.

Turn: I'd call. You've got immediate odds to draw, and the UTG looks so passive it's not likely he'll 3-bet, even with a big hand. Shoot, even if he 3-bets, you'll get 13-3 pot odds.

Edit: Huh, Harv has a good point--a 3-bet would spell big trouble.

Mr. Orange · #5 12-17-2006, 01:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]

This is going to sound utterly retarded, but I think you can actually make a case here for calling two cold and folding to a 3bet...because I seriously doubt that UTG is raising again without the nut straight. Loose/passives aren't going to realize that MP1 obviously has an overpair and 3bet for value with less than the nuts, at least not very often. And if he does have the nuts, then we're back at 3 outs to a chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the input Harv. This an interesting line, the only thing that scares me is UTG 3betting the turn with 54. Yeah he's passive but he's also hit a big draw. Bad players always think they're straights are good even if they're the sucker straight. You might be right but this scares me a little.