$150+20 Live MTT Short Stack Bubble Situation

[Tinga]

Ok, lets start out with this. I am going to do my best to recall the situation.

This is my first live tournament, run by a group of people that run charity events in different parts of the area. There are lots of regulars, and lots of donks at these events all the time.

Final table of 40 runners, 9 left, 8 get paid.

Blinds are 2000/4000. Appx. stacks follows:

UTG: 5500
UTG+1: 6000
UTG+2: 100000
Hero: 10500
MP+1: 5500
MP+2: 25000
CO: 50000
SB posts 2000: 20000 behind
BB posts 4000: 8000 behind

- MP+1 was struggling to survive, and was very quiet at the table, I think he was scared that he was not going to money.
- MP+2 aggressive young kid, wasn't getting involved in too many pots preflop against any early raises unless he had a decent hand. He did make a few steals in the previous orbits, but nothing got shown down.
- CO is old dude, one of the regulars I believe, plays a tight game, but I didn't respect his play.
- SB is a young, solid, tight thinking player who makes good decisions, and makes some folds where he maybe should be calling (one orbit prior, I made a steal with 56s for a little more than 2.5x, and he claims to have folded ATs).
- BB is an older female, one of the regulars, and plays a decent game.
- UTG+2, chipleader, has no problems with limping in and seeing flops, he had made a few raises to take down the blinds, and doing a good the job the chip leader should be doing. Not to mention he had knocked out the two people before this hand took place (his AQ > AK, and he had a set against another bigger stack whose flush draw whiffed).
- Hero has sat with 3 of these players at other tables, and they had seen me make solid plays. I have been playing tight, and pushing in situations when it folds to me so I can stay ahead of the blinds, and nobody has called me. I have moved in two hands prior to this, and maybe 4 times total in which all players have seen.

Dealt to hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero?

I have no FE here, and since the chipleader limped, and I shove, I expect him to make a call. There are 3 other stacks at the table that are vulnerable to going out very soon, and they know it and are scared about it (after the many comments they were all making).

Losing the buy-in is a non-issue, but bubbling in tourneys is, and I was 3 hours in so I was looking to make some kind of score. The payouts were top 3 heavy (1st, $2400, 2nd, $1200, 3rd, $800 -- 4th through 8th weren't getting too much for their time. If I fold now, I risk making myself even shorter when the blinds hit and I also give myself a better ITM shot. If I move in, there's a slim chance that the chipleader folds, but if he calls and has something stupid like AK/AQ that he didn't raise with, then at least I'm ahead and I have some chance to win it. I need some chips so I can stay ahead of the blinds, and make some steals with.

Should I try to see if I can outlast UTG or UTG+1 with them being practically forced in in the next two/three hands, or do I take a stand and go for 1st?

[Fo10]

With UTG and UTG +1 not being able to survive the blinds in the next couple of hands I think that makes this a fold. At best you are in a coin flip with the big stack who is probably calling you every time.