A Long Post About Variance (Example, LONG)

[ZBTHorton]

I just hope people realize that the point of this wasn't to say that I didn't think I was also *not* playing *optimally*.

[Clayton]

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He's overgeneralizing. I agree that 95+% of people who have a 30+ BI downswing have a lot of leaks, but it's statistically possible for a solid winning player to lose that much, just improbable.

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thanks!

now im kinda sorry i sucked out on you with my 4bet shove with ATs [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Clayton]

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I just hope people realize that the point of this wasn't to say that I didn't think I was also *not* playing *optimally*.

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oh, i'm aware. i'm just being very nazi because i dont want people to interpret discussions like this where leaking players pat each other on the back, giving lurkers the idea that poker is more dice than chess.

ok lunch is here, ill stop nazi'ing this thread up.

[KLJ]

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now im kinda sorry i sucked out on you with my 4bet shove with ATs [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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hahaha no worries, poker is poker. i hold my grudges against lee jones, not the people who bad beat me, cause i dish out my fair share too.

[BadMongo]

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If you are having a huge downswing in 200nl or lower and you cite variance as being a significant factor in your large (30+ buyins) loss of money over a 25k hand sample or larger, YOU ARE STUBBORN.

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Why does this seem so impossible to you?

Do you agree that the chance of a 30+ BI downswing occuring over the course of a winning player's poker career is non-zero?

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He's overgeneralizing. I agree that 95+% of people who have a 30+ BI downswing have a lot of leaks, but it's statistically possible for a solid winning player to lose that much, just improbable.

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Of course its improbable. But think about the fact that there are thousands of winning players playing hundreds of thousands of hands. It's virtually certain that at least some of them will experience a downswing like this.

edit: here's another thing to think about. There are very few "strongly winning players" at NL 200 and above. Most players are marginal winners at best, even if they believe otherwise.

[MobBarley]

Great post. Some people don't realize how fortunate they are if they never had a long downswing. I have read several threads now of solid to excellent players having brutal losing stretches. I had many days where I played close to perfect poker and lost several buy-ins, and I've had many days where I've played poorly and won a few buy ins. Most don't understand the impact of luck/variance.

[delta k]

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all this post does is reinforce idea that it's OK to have a downswing.

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you mean, have a 40 buyin downswing when better players wouldnt?

im sry, i dont buy it. use better game selection, stop sitting in games with me, happyclammy, and snakekilla. play marginal situations better.

posts that excuse gigantic downswings at SSNL are ludicrous. it was especially ludicrous with FGators because he still thinks he's a winning player, and not so ludicrous with Brian because I think he's a winning player that is running bad and not making choice adjustments.

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i'm not sure if you're agreeing w/ me or not so I'll make what I'm trying to say a little more clear.

40+ buy-ins IS A LOT. And there is more to it than just 'running bad'. Game selection, playing when tired/tilting, NOT BEING A WINNER IN THE FIRST PLACE, too many tables, forgetting what standard is and not trusting reads (because you keep losing, thus compounding the issue).

[ajmargarine]

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The probability of loosing 30 buyins at 200NL for a strongly winning player are incredibly tiny. However you would have to be a man of adamantium to still be playing well after that kind of swing so it's kinda moot.

I have had severe swings before and certainly bad luck can account for quite a few buyins, but I know that poor play is involved too.

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I think I agree with this even though I don't know what adamantium means.

I'm sure variance can account for half of this downswing. But, we're only talking about 22k hands. 31 buy-ins. A portion of this has to be bad play. If I had to speculate, I'd say you are probably leaking in alot of small/medium pots that are under your radar.

[BadMongo]

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Do you agree that the chance of a 30+ BI downswing occuring over the course of a winning player's poker career is non-zero?

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at 200nl, in todays environment, NO

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So what do you consider to be in the realm of possibilities? 10? 15? 20?

[Bukem_]

1st 3/4 of my year:



last quarter:



I can add numbers and comments, just wanted to show a fairly big sample for now.