KK - Find a fold here?

jackdaniels · #1 12-14-2006, 08:24 PM

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (18 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 21 BB

Both villains are loose and passive over 200 hands (30/1.5). Fold the flop (or turn UI) seemed too drastic, but it felt like I was spewing on all streets after that...

sharpie · #2 12-14-2006, 08:39 PM

I'd play it the same. 3x doesn't seem possible for UTG unless it's 33 as he's not limping it UTG except for maybe A3, and he wouldn't play the flop like that with A3.

Is 1.5 his PFR%? If so JJ and 99 are possible but you have 2 outs against these and the pot is getting huge. This could easily be J9 or even something like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Caporegime · #3 12-14-2006, 08:44 PM

You have position on him, cap the flop and see what he does on the turn. If he bets out I might fold or raise for a free showdown. I think there are too many players there for him to be on a pure semibluff. So define your hand on the flop and make a decision on the turn.
Capo

Xhad · #4 12-14-2006, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have position on him, cap the flop and see what he does on the turn. If he bets out I might fold or raise for a free showdown. I think there are too many players there for him to be on a pure semibluff. So define your hand on the flop and make a decision on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow there are so many things wrong with this. First, you want to make the pot huge and then fold, which is a no-no if you don't already think you're a favorite. You want to cap the flop vs. a loose passive with one pair. You want to raise for a "free" showdown against an opponent who is unlikely to have a draw; no offense but it sounds like you're using a lot of ideas that you haven't thought through well enough to know when to use them.

OP: With a very strong read you might fold to the turn c/r (with some people this is 100% 33 or 99) but there's also various J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hands and he might have J9 and not know how to read a board.

Checking the turn might be considered HU but not 4 handed, and I can't see playing this any other way pre-turn.

jackdaniels · #5 12-14-2006, 09:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is 1.5 his PFR%? If so JJ and 99 are possible but you have 2 outs against these and the pot is getting huge. This could easily be J9 or even something like AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5 is total agg. His PFR was nothing stellar (7.5). The way it went down I had him on either 33, J9, 99, AJ. Once the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] came on the turn and I got C/R, I narrowed it down to AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 99 or J9 (was actually hoping J9). I am ahead of only one of those hands by the river, but the pot was big and I had made some river folds over the past few hands that were close, so it was possible the guy decided to push me off the hand. Can anyone fold this river here getting 19 to 1? Consider that we might still get raised by the SB (unlikely as it is).

BTW - I HATED calling that C/R on the turn from a loose passive. But even if I was behind a made boat, I was getting 16 to 1 and felt he would definitely still bet a K river, and may even 3 bet my raise, allowing a cap. With any luck, SB would contribute as well if I had made a boat.

Xhad · #6 12-14-2006, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone fold this river here getting 19 to 1? Consider that we might still get raised by the SB (unlikely as it is).

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You could always call and then fold if that happens. SB will have a flush like 100% of the time if he decides to c/r the both of you.

jackdaniels · #7 12-14-2006, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OP: With a very strong read you might fold to the turn c/r (with some people this is 100% 33 or 99) but there's also various J x hands and he might have J9 and not know how to read a board.

Checking the turn might be considered HU but not 4 handed, and I can't see playing this any other way pre-turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything you said. I did not have THAT strong a read and eliminated 33 once the turn came (well, negligable chance anyway). I was really worried about 99.

Results in white:
 Vilain showed JJ for the top boat and MHING. (SB had KJo [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img])

James. · #8 12-14-2006, 11:07 PM

wow. you were pwned on that turn. don't feel bad, i would bet as well. i think if i had a good read on UTG i could consider a fold on that turn. it would be really, really, really hard but looking at the action it would take some kind of real overplaying for villain to have AJ. of course IMO since you will see AJ once in 6 times or so it's a calldown, even though you'll see 99933 or JJJ33 the rest of the time.