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#21
12-14-2006, 03:52 PM
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Re: Interesting KJs hand
yup vickrey it is a clear non-cap. what hands 3-bet the river? boats and flushes. do flush draws raise the turn? no. so you're up against a boat or a way overplayed three of a kind yo. call river 3-bet. you're ahead 35% of the time.
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#24
12-14-2006, 04:34 PM
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Re: Interesting KJs hand
I think I usually c/c the turn but that does tell your opponents you have nothing. I'd like to know more about the players yet to act if I were going to bet or not. I think it does disguise our draw a little more but I don't know if that and the small chance of folding everyone out makes up for getting re-raised. On the turn I would say button most likely (assuming he's an unknown) has something like: A6s, A7s, 33 - TT, 8d 9d, Ad 3d, A3s, 56s, 67s. - 48 combos. I'm not sure what I'd do on the river after the way the turn went. b/c or ck/r. If we ck/r and he 3bets I guess we'd have to call unless we had a good read on the player. Like if we knew he could 3bet worse hands than ours on the river it might be worth doing. I would probably b/c vs an unknown. I don't think villain ever checks behind us here. I don't think there are many hands he would fold to 1 bet on the river after his display of strength on the turn (basically if his hand was that weak he may likely check behind us or even fold to a ck/r), but there are a lot more he would 3 bet us with that we can't beat. I suppose we need to know if the times he calls a check/raise and we win is worth more than the times he calls/raises a river bet. Possible river 3bet hands for villain: A6s - 2, 56s - 2, = 4 combos. 33 - 3, 77 - 3, 66 - 1, 99 - 3, 67s -2, 8d9d - 1, Ad3d - 1 = 14 combos. If I ck/c the turn I'd probably c/r the river and call a 3bet as we wouldn't have the information we got on the turn by button's raise to our turn bet. If the turn gets checked through we probably bet/3bet the river/call cap and put the same amount of bets in again. I think whatever line we take we generally put in the same number of bets when behind, except if we b/c turn, ck/r river and call a 3bet, or b/c b/3bet riv, and we most likely lose if we do that on this board vs an unknown. Okay so I made some assumptions about what villain will do with his hands depending on our action: Hands villain will bet and call a ck/r but not 3bet. 88, TT, A6s (50%), A7s, 56s (50%), 44, 55, A3s, (he may fold a few of these though) Hands villain will call a river bet but not raise. 44, 55, 88, TT (50%), A7s, A3s, Hands villain will raise a river bet that we beat. A6s, 56s, TT (50%), Hands villain will bet/3bet a ck/r that beat us. 8d9d, 33, 77, 66, 67s, 99, Ad3d, Hands villain will bet/3bet a ck/r that we beat. A6s (50%), 56s (50%) Our options on river are: Bet/Call. Bet/3bet/Call cap. Check/Raise/Call a 3bet. My assumptions on the river are: If we bet the river and villain calls we win. If we bet/3bet the river villain will call with the hands listed above that we beat and cap with hands that beat us. If we check/raise the river we will call a 3bet. Villain won't check behind. ______________________ Bet/3bet. Win (villain raises) 7/48 15% Win (vill calls bet) 27/48 56% Lose (villain caps) 14/48 29% 0.15x13.5 - 0.29x4 = +0.865 0.56x11.5 - 0.29x1 = +6.15 = +7.02 EV _______________________ Bet/Call. Win (vill raises) 7/48 15% Lose (vill raises) 14/48 29% Win (vill calls) 27/48 56% 0.15x12.5 - 0.29x2 = +0.715 0.56x11.5 - 0.29x1 = +6.15 = +6.9 EV ________________________ Ck/r/call. (Note - I haven't included the hands that villain might 3bet us with here that we beat. It was like, 2% of his holdings or something). Win (vill calls) 34/48 71% Lose (vill 3bets) 14/48 29% 0.71x12.5 - 0.29x3 = +8.00 EV Check/raise?
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#26
12-14-2006, 05:53 PM
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Re: Interesting KJs hand
[ QUOTE ]
do all of you not like the donk-bet/call raise line on the river? [/ QUOTE ] Do you expect villain to check behind the river? If no, bet/calling is really bad. It's even worse than check/calling.
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