Info for Simple Paper: Luck vs. Skill

[Abbaddabba]

Using the tournaments is a horrible idea.

It doesnt illustrate the point at all to the layman, and in my opinion, it makes you look like you dont know what you're talking about.

It is very simple to explain why it's possible to win in theory. Give a quick run through of how the game works like i posted above.

If you want concrete proof that there are people who win, you would need to provide some sort of concrete data. Im sure a lot of people have 100k hand databases for you to use.

Most importantly, start off that you acknowledge that it is an absolute necessity that the 'average' person will lose.

[Daisydog]

Using Wilson's Turbo Hold Em, simulate a heads up battle of 5 million hands using two different player profiles and note who wins. Repeat this 10 more times. Show that the same player wins all 10 subsequent heads up matches.

If poker were all luck, the heads up matches would be coin flips and the chance that the same player would win all ten subsequent matches would be .5^10 = .00098. This should be enough evidence that poker is not all luck.

[Daisydog]

Predominantly luck or skill depends on how long you play. The outcome of a game of 5 million hands will be determined predominantly by skill. The outcome of a game of 5 hands will be determined predominantly by luck.

[Unknown Soldier]

This has been discussed before. Give this example: HU and your opponent will fold every hand, you take the blinds by just raising when you are in the sb. That's all skill.

The fact is that you can not qunatify skill in poker. Different games have different amounts of luck involved. I.e. a game where you both have $1,000,000 and the bb is $1. You play untill someone has it all will involve alot of skill. A game where you and another player have $100 and you both put in your stack as antes and get dealt 5 cards. That's all luck. It's still poker though.

[Abbaddabba]

It's not just the structure of the game either.

It's the gap between the players involved.

Two identical players will have a greater luck:skill ratio than a monkey and a pro.

[AaronBrown]

Another reason the skill versus luck distinction is problematic is it depends on who measures it. Roulette, for example, is clearly all luck to the player, but almost no luck for the casino.

I tihnk a lot of the skill versus luck debate historically sprang form opposition to professional gamblers. Most people, even during anti-gambling periods, did not object to a wager between friends, but didn't like a house running a game of chance. The distinction was used not because anyone cared about it directly, but it allowed legal home poker games and sports betting (including horse racing), but forbade games like craps and roulette.

[Abbaddabba]

[ QUOTE ]
Another reason the skill versus luck distinction is problematic is it depends on who measures it. Roulette, for example, is clearly all luck to the player, but almost no luck for the casino.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems that by that rationale, there's almost no luck for a good player either.

The standard deviation, if anything, seems like it would be HIGHER in roulette than it is in hold em.

[AaronBrown]

Good roulette player or good hold'em player?

In the long run, you're right that there's little luck for a roulette player, but over a session she can win big. The house has almost no chance of losing even over a session.

Even a good poker player in an easy game can lose money for a session. The worst player in the world can catch some lucky cards, the best player in the world can miss every draw and get his good hands when others have better ones.

To compare standard deviations of hold'em and roulette you have to figure some way to compare the stakes. $10 put into a poker pot has more standard deviation than a $10 red/black bet in roulette, but less than a $10 number bet.

[bigwavedave]

The question is whether luck is present in Poker to such a degree as to thwart the exercise of skill or judgement.

The answer is no.

[hantori]

Here is a list of top 100 if you still need it.
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/circ...a=e&n=WSOP