AJo suicide squeeze?

[Entity]

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I think you may be either overestimating how AJo stacks up against even a wide range.


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Very possibly. I like folding and you've convinced me this is a close one so I will do more folding in future.

I can hardly believe we're on preflop issues here, and it's something of a thread-hijack so I'm a bit ashamed, but as a follow up:

- presumably AJo is close enough here that AJs is a threebet?
- what pocket pairs are you threebetting in this situation?

Guy.

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I'd coldcall AJs and I'd 3-bet TT+ if the PFR was 18+ but I can see a coldcall with TT (honestly) if the PFR is closer to 14%. 99-22 are all coldcalls for me.

Rob

[baronzeus]

I spent about 10 minutes trying to figure out this hand.

[Digs]

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Anyone muck this preflop? I call suited, of course.

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i dunno this is a funny spot preflop. i do all 3 sometimes, mostly 3ball or fold tho~

whoa i missed that other cc, lol fold is best now eh [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Dane S]

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I spent about 10 minutes trying to figure out this hand.

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Any conclusions?

[rory]

Just fold the flop. You don't close the action and your outs aren't clean. You are getting 12:1 immediately on a call but you could have anywhere from 0 to 6 outs. Also even if all 6 outs are clean right now, hitting a spade of either one of your outs gives other players redraw outs. Probably I would estimate you have between 0 and 2 outs. Also you don't even come close to closing the action so it can get raised behind you fairly easily. I think this flop call is pretty bad.

[Dane S]

Hmm hadn't considered that. You are right about outs not being too clean though 0-2 seems pretty pessimistic to me. What led you to this number?

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Also you don't even come close to closing the action so it can get raised behind you fairly easily.

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Given UTGs flop check and the rarity of a c/r in that spot, I think SB is the only player who's at all likely to raise behind me, and given his stats, the board, and his SB call I don't think that will be happening very often, so I'm not really sure what you mean by this. I think it gets raised behind me no more than 10 or 15% of the time.

[rory]

UTG is likely to have a better ace since he is a TAG, he raised UTG and checked the flop and would most likely keep betting with a pair. The board is two flushed so if you hit either of the cards in your hand with a spade you can lose to a single spade on the river. Also hitting the jack of hearts gives a redraw to a heart flush. Your jack puts redraws to straights on board if you hit it. The board itself is drawy so other players may have redraws if you hit since they are still drawing live. Lots of people like to play Ax hands and pairs to raises so that is another reason you could be drawing only to the jack or totally dead.

You are right about the possibility of getting check raised behind you being slim, though. But even so I don't know how this flop could be anything except an auto-fold.

[Dane S]

How about a flop raise? Looking at some of the issues you bring up I wonder if perhaps this is worthwhile to clean up my outs? Perhaps this is a raise or fold situation.

[rory]

For me it goes fold > raise >> call.

[baronzeus]

Yeah, I was pretty much hung up on the flop. I'm glad someone else agrees with me there.

the turn is tough. I fold it almost every time, and I had nver even thought about raising the turn. Glad you posted this.