Ultimate Fight Night 7: 12/13/2006

[dreamcrusha]

Man this blows, there is only a couple fights where the favorite is less than -305 and I haven't heard of most of those fighters [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Performify HELP [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I think Kos and Karo both roll here but I don't want to lay more than -250. I think there may be some value in Riggs at the current price. Thoughts?





edited title to make this the official thread -P

[dreamcrusha]

The more and more I think about it.....

I don't think there is any way that Diego will be bet higher than his current price -410 so I put .5 units on Riggs at +375. Riggs is dealing with the tragic death of his daughter and sometimes these things tend to bring out the best in athletes (lets hope it is case here). I also bet 2 units on Koscheck -310 before that line gets out of control. This fight will be cakewalk for Kos. It is one of those fights were they handpicked a soupcan/stepping stone especially for him to destroy.

I have a slight lean towards Shonie Carter -120 as well but I am looking forward to seeing Performity's analysis before I bet.

[goodsamaritan]

I think Shonie Carter looks very good at -139 v. Marcus Davis and Koscheck also looks very good at -318 v. Jeff Joslin.

The Sanchez-Riggs and Karo-Fickett fights I'm not so sure about. I'm somewhat considering throwing down some money on Riggs and Fickett at +375, though moreso on Riggs.

I'd like to hear an argument either way about those two fights.

[Aicirt]

Im considering placing a large bet on Koscheck. However seeing Kos opened at -350 on betonfighting and having that line be bet down to -305 I figured I better look into it some.

I didnt know anything about Joslin but I looked some stuff on him on sherdog and on his personal website. Hes a karate blackbelt and a BJJ blackbelt. He has a 5-2 record. He has only beat one person with a winning record (for what its worth, it was both fighters first MMA fight). His two losses were to Jonathan Goulet (unanimous decision) and Jon Fitch (split decision). However all of his wins are via TKO or KO. A lot of pictures of Joslin are of him mounting his opponent. He apparently tried out for TUF 3 but obviously did not make the show.

Kos is the best wrestler in the UFC....nobody else is even close. I cant imagine Joslin being able to mount Kos and pound out a TKO victory. Kos's hands keep getting better. We loaded up on Kos against Goulet (at around -400 IIRC) and Kos won that fight easily. Goulet beat Joslin bad enough to get a unanimous decision.

This seems like a completely lopsided fight to me, but before I throw a big bet on Kos I wanted to see if anyone thinks differently.

[Gkeuler]

If you dont know anything about joslin then you shouldnt be betting on that fight, or any fight where you know so little about the other fighter :S I just dont see the logic

[Gkeuler]

and jon fitch is a top rated WW too, google fitch vs joslin and see what happened in that fight

[Aicirt]

I didnt know anything about Joslin, but now I do know some. I shared the info I found (info that in IMO hints to an easy victory by Koscheck) and want to see if theres anything else that needs to be said about the fight. Thats why I made the post...to start discussion and see if anyone had anything to add.

[Performify]

This thread is for all discussion related to UFN:7 on 12/13.

I'll be back with full card predictions as always. here are the current lines:

Shonie Carter vs Marcus Davis
Shonie Carter -139
Marcus Davis +129

David Heath vs Victor Valimaki
David Heath -171
Victor Valimaki +161

Jorge Santiago vs Alan Belcher
Jorge Santiago -137
Alan Belcher +127

Luigi Fioravanti vs Dave Menne
Luigi Fioravanti -397
Dave Menne +367

Diego Sanchez vs Joe Riggs
Diego Sanchez -415
Joe Riggs +375

Josh Koscheck vs Jeff Joslin
Josh Koscheck -325
Jeff Joslin +295

Karo Parisyan vs Drew Fickett
Karo Parisyan -396
Drew Fickett +356



changed the title of the OP to make this the official thread...

[dreamcrusha]

I'm glad we are official now! Looking forward to your analysis Performify.

[ScottieK]

Me too Performify...go Diego! Too bad he's listed at -520 on Bodog (Riggs at +310) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

ScottieK