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#1
12-12-2006, 01:15 PM
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unexpected raise from 2+2er
villain is 2+2, definitely a thinking player. I have him at 27/17/2
Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $100 UTG+1: $35.80 CO: $96.25 Hero: $99.50 SB: $98.90 BB: $167.15 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($10.5, 3 players) SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks. Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($10.5, 3 players) SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks. River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10.5, 3 players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $26</font>, BB folds, I should have bet flop but I was 8 tabling and not really paying attention blah balh blah. On the river I decided I wanted the pot when out of nowwhere sb raises. I don't think he is checking a jack on all 3 streets and if he has 77 that takes huge balls/retardation to check on the river. I really wanna shove. thoughts??? 
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#2
12-12-2006, 01:24 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
A shove would be reall ballsy thats for sure. I can't really put him on a hand either, he probably smelled your FOS and decided to raise you. The problem is, if he's smart he's calling with any K because its VERY unlikely that you have anything. Basically the problem is, its clear that both of you have air if you push here. But is your air beating his air? (thats the question HE has to answer when you push)
My guess is he hit a weak 7 and smelled bulls.hit from you, if you pushed I might see him call. You either have a very very weirdly played trips/FH/quads here or air and the same goes for him.
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#3
12-12-2006, 01:29 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
My guess is he hit a weak 7 and smelled bulls.hit from you, if you pushed I might see him call. You either have a very very weirdly played trips/FH/quads here or air and the same goes for him. [/ QUOTE ] so he raised the river with his weak 7 to induce a shove?
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#6
12-12-2006, 01:31 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
The size of the pot is not worth the risk. I think he has a hand more than you think. If you think he is raising you light, wait for him to do it when you have something (at least something better than nothing). Why did you check the flop?
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#8
12-12-2006, 01:33 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My guess is he hit a weak 7 and smelled bulls.hit from you, if you pushed I might see him call. You either have a very very weirdly played trips/FH/quads here or air and the same goes for him. [/ QUOTE ] so he raised the river with his weak 7 to induce a shove? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmmm your right, he probably has air here a lot. A 7 doesn't really make sense either. So to me its either Air or The nuts. And the nuts is unlikely given the other action. Tell me if you disagree, I'm still trying to get my thought processes right. Considering I still have a bunch of basic flaws in my thinking. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#9
12-12-2006, 01:33 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
You didn't mention your table image or BB's table image. There is one possibility that might not have occurred to you: SB could have quads.
If you're extremely aggressive, SB might have slowplayed preflop or played for set value preflop, then gone for a checkraise on the flop and missed. Knowing that a turn bet would look fishy, he decided you wouldn't check behind twice and so went for a checkraise again, and missed again. Finally, when the river bricked he figured his only hope for getting any cash out of BB and you was if you bluffed the river, so he checked again. When you put in the money he hoped you might have gotten some miracle or slowplay, and so he keeps the betting alive with a raise. I'm not saying it's a likely hand, but it is something that's possible here. Also, 77 is a distinct possibility here: play for set value preflop, check flop when you miss, check turn intending to fold, spike a miracle and check-raise the river expecting to pick off a bluff and hoping to nail a slowplayed K or J. It seems to me that a thinking player tries to steal this pot earlier, or at LEAST with a lead on the river, rather than a check-raise. This CR looks like it's a hand. It may not be a fantastic hand, but it's a hand. Your river push will look incredibly suspicious here, and villain will be more likely than usual to call you. How much more likely is extremely difficult to quantify, but if villain has a K or better (not out of the question), I'd expect a call, and if villain has a loose seven I think he's typically folding preflop (unless he has 77, at which point you're never folding him). If villain had led, a bluff-raise would be quite frisky but potentially +EV. Instead, villain check-raised, and you have absolute air; I think a three-bet push after you've displayed this much weakness in the hand is probably a -EV play.
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#10
12-12-2006, 01:33 PM
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Re: unexpected raise from 2+2er
[ QUOTE ]
The size of the pot is not worth the risk. I think he has a hand more than you think. If you think he is raising you light, wait for him to do it when you have something (at least something better than nothing). Why did you check the flop? [/ QUOTE ] he could have bet before, but the question at hand is the river
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