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#22
12-12-2006, 10:59 AM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Seen over a season routinly punting on 4th and one probably is about a hundred times worse an error. [/ QUOTE ] Care to expand on this? I think their are way to many factors involved to make such a statement. The type of game, field position, etc, etc, etc. Or were you approaching it from a mathmatical standpoint? [/ QUOTE ] Obviously you shouldn't allways go for it on 4th and one and all the other stuff you mention will have to be factored in. However there are several statistical studies indicating that in terms of mathematical expectation there are many, many more situations that call for teams going for the first down than what is currently beeing done and that in most cases the "default play" on 4th and short is to go for it rather than punt. /Bjorn 
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#23
12-12-2006, 12:11 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
I just re-read the original thread and have a slight problem. If this campaign is successful, won't the 42% statistic change? The 2+2 for 2 campaign may actually make the "go for 2" decision -EV.
~MagicMan
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#24
12-18-2006, 05:16 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
[ QUOTE ]
I just re-read the original thread and have a slight problem. If this campaign is successful, won't the 42% statistic change? The 2+2 for 2 campaign may actually make the "go for 2" decision -EV. ~MagicMan [/ QUOTE ] yes, someone who gets it. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Magicman these are not just independent trials. To think so shows a lack of understanding of football.
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#25
12-18-2006, 09:48 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I just re-read the original thread and have a slight problem. If this campaign is successful, won't the 42% statistic change? The 2+2 for 2 campaign may actually make the "go for 2" decision -EV. ~MagicMan [/ QUOTE ] yes, someone who gets it. [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Magicman these are not just independent trials. To think so shows a lack of understanding of football. [/ QUOTE ] I don't get it. How do defenses suddenly get better at stopping a play from the two yard line?
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