Bad raise on the river?

[MrBig30]

So I am trying to improve my very mediocre play and I started thinking about a river raise I did today that seemed good at the time.

10/20 6-handed.
UTG (31/11/1.6) opens, Mega-loose CO (73/9/.7) calls and I decide to call with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the button. The blinds fold

Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7,5SB, 3 players)
UTG bets, call, I call.

Turn Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5,25BB, 3 players)
UTG bets, fold, I call.

River K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7,25BB, 2 players)
UTG bets and I raise.

Like I said, at the time it seemed like a raise should be marginally profitable. But is it?
These hands will likely pay off: AA (6), AK (8), AQ (? 12), KJ (8) = 34 combos.
These hands beat me: AJ (16), KQ (6), KK (1), QQ (3), TT (1), 88 (3), 77 (3), J9s (4) = 37 combos.

In addition many of the hands that beat me will 3-bet (especially the 16 combos of AJ, the nuts), and I would have to pay that off as I cannot trust him enough to fold.

So I probably should not raise the river right? Anybody raise flop or turn?

[Hobbs.]

I think the flop is a clear raise. River is a very standard raise.

[MrBig30]

Flop might be a good raise. But whether the river is a "standard" raise does not interest me as much as whether it is +EV or not. So please elaborate. Looking at the combinations we are ahead and behind raising sure looks like a loser. Especially if we are going to pay off a 3-bet. And even more if he does not pay off with AQ.

[Hobbs.]

well I'd drop 77/88/J9s off the list given his pfr. Also this guy gives the impression of being somewhat of a passive monkey which means he doesn't always bet the turn with AJ here as well. I'd guess if you were not comfortable folding to a 3-bet then calling might be more EV+ than raising, but you are committed to taking a raise/fold line I think this is best (given the above adjustments to his ranges).

[sonartec]

RAISE [censored] PREFLOP FOR GODS SAKE

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
FOLD [censored] PREFLOP FOR GODS SAKE

[/ QUOTE ]

[Hobbs.]

[ QUOTE ]
RAISE [censored] PREFLOP FOR GODS SAKE

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you missed that UTG raised already. Do you actually 3-bet this with a cold caller in between?

[MrBig30]

Well, ok. If you can comfortably raise/fold there might be some small value there. But if you want to drop hands from his UTG range maybe KJ should go as well... making any value in the raise a bit doubtful. Me, I will probably take the safe route as I am not convinced there is much to gain here.

[Victor]

preflop is pretty bad. id raise the flop with to trap the fool.

[MrBig30]

[ QUOTE ]
preflop is pretty bad. id raise the flop with to trap the fool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not so sure its that bad. Looney loosie is in there and with some luck one or two blinds will be too. If we hit the hand hard there could be a nice payout.