.25/.50 razz hand with Jesus Ferguson

[blee24]

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Definitely bet fourth. With the small pot and probably the second-best draw, I think you can almost find a fold on fifth. By sixth, you could well be drawing dead. I think this is a fold. I have a hard time imagining that Ferguson would check a better hand against your board. I'd definitely bet the river.

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Andy - I greatly disagree with your 5th street advice, its a cointoss based on Chris's hand range (remember Chris plays perfect Razz, he is a specialist), and its even possible that the hero is still a slight favorite. But I do agree I can find a fold on 6th street, and I value bet the river.

Chris played the hand perfectly as expected.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

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I think I understand and agree that 5th street is a clear call. Even if I knew Ferguson had A3 in the hole, I'd be only a 1.2 to 1 dog, getting 3.3 to 1 pot odds.

I don't see 6th street being a clear fold though.. it looks like a call to me. I tried to work out a hand analysis here, and I'd appreciate any comments:

If I'm not drawing dead, my chances of winning are between 17.2% (if he has A7 in the hole) and 62% (48 in the hole). I'm assuming he bets 5th street no matter what to give me a chance to fold if I was semi-bluffing third street, especially since I checked 4th street, so I can't eliminate the possibility of a 2 or 4 in the hole from his range.

As a short cut, I'm going to make an over-simplifying, conservative assumption that when I'm NOT drawing dead, I have a 22.5% chance of winning. This is true if he has 57 or 58.

So now I want to estimate the chance that I'm drawing dead. I'm drawing dead when he has two non-paired cards from the set {A,3,5}. There are 3 live A's, 2 live 3's, and 4 live 5's (9 cards).

For Ferguson's hole cards, I'm putting him on a range of 2 non-paired cards 8 or lower, and no 6's. As of 6th street, I count 19 live cards in that range. So the chance that he has two cards from the drawing-dead set is:
(9/19) * (8/18) = 21.05%
But I need to subtract out pairs:
AA = (3/19) * (2/18) = 1.75%
33 = (2/19) * (1/18) = .585%
55 = (4/19) * (3/19) = 3.51%
total = 5.85%

So the chance I'm drawing dead is 21.05 - 5.85 = 15.2%

My chance of winning the hand should be better than 22.5% * (1 - .152) + 0% * (.152) = 19.08%

That makes me a 4.2 to 1 dog, and I'm getting 5.3 to 1 pot odds, so looks like a call, right? And I think the 22.5% is an under-estimate of my winning chances. Plus, I think the fact that Ferguson called instead of raising might bias his range towards the higher hold cards, which would improve my chances.