Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week 14

[Performify]

Last week: 2-1 +4.91 units with a push on Game of the Week.

2006 YTD - Season Record Summary:
Game of the Week: 5 - 4 - 4 +5.70u
non GotW picks: 16 - 24 - 1 -5.71u
All Straight Picks: 21 - 28 - 5 -0.01
Tease of the Week: 6 - 2 - 0 +10.60
All Public Picks: 27 - 30 - 5 +10.59

Weighted Record for my public picks( ala Fezzik):
Game of the Week weighted record: 26-20 (56.52%) +5.70 units
All straight picks(no teasers) weighted record: 59-58 (50.43%) -0.01 units
All Public Picks (inc. teasers) weighted record: 76-64 (54.29%) +10.59 units

As always, these lines are the WA lines as of the time of this post, and the units are graduated units so if you're playing 1% - 2% of your bankroll units, cut mine in half...

Jaguars -1 (-103) over Colts
Last week, i had some people over watching the Big 12 Championship game on my theater, and I was working on my NFL picks from my laptop while keeping an eye on the game. I had just finished crunching my numbers for the week, and my system spit out its plays for the week. A couple 2p2'ers were over, and wanted to get an early look at the week's plays. We all shook our heads when the Game of the Week was Titans beating the Colts - not Titans +7.5 which was the line at the time, but Titans moneyline. I talked through it, and figured I had to have made a mistake somewhere. I'd never seen my system spit out a moneyline play on an underdog > -3 let alone -7. So I tweaked and tweaked my inputs, and eventually downgraded the play to Titans +7.5 and downgraded it from the Game of the Week to a standard play. Well, once the Titans put through that 60 yard field goal for the win, you can imagine I got a phone call from one of the people there that night, chiding me for my lack of testicular fortitude, as he had played the Titans ML on my system's original recommendation. Long story short: my system has the Colts losing again this week, and I'm not asking any questions this time.

The Colts are well-documented at having the NFL's worst rush defense. This week they face a team who put up 150 yards on the ground last week against the NFL's 7th ranked rush defense (the 'Fins) on the road. At home, against the porous Colts rush d, we should see at least 150 from the Jags and maybe more. In addition to woes on rush defense, the Colts feature undersized defensive backs, especially corners, who will struggle greatly against a 6-foot-6 Matt Jones who is already on a hot streak, finally developing strong chemistry with QB David Gerrard. The Jags also have 6-foot-4 Reggie Williams opposite Matt Jones, which provides very significant height difference to the two Colts corners, the 5-8 Jason David or the 5-10 Nick Harper. Assuming Harper covers Jones, that's eight inches of height difference in both matchups.

On defense, the Jags are giving up just 91 yards a game on the ground. This staunch rush defense should let them play base defense at worst and possibly move to nickel most of the time to help try to limit the Colts aerial attack. The Jags giving up under 190 yards per game through the air, which is significantly below the Colts average of 270 per game. Also troubling for the Colts, Jags corner Rashean Mathis leads the league in interceptions with seven and would certainly like to add one from Manning this week.

While both teams need this win, Jacksonville needs it more - the Colts have secured a playoff spot but are playing for home field advantage. However, Jacksonville is fighting for a wild card spot and has to have this win at home. This game is also 72% to 28% in favor of the Colts on Wagerline, making it a fade-the-public play as well. Moving the line from Jags +1 to -1 in favor of better ROI here. 24-21 Jacksonville, Game of the Week.

Titans -1 (+107) at Houston
While a lot of people see this as an important game for the Texans to win to somehow justify passing over Vince Young, I see this going the other way. There are already questions about Carr's future in Houston, and I think the first sign of weakness from the Texans their homefield crowd is going to chorus up the boos, and you're going to see a typical homefield advantage turn in to extra pressure and an actual disadvantage. Vince Young should have additional motivation knowing that the Texans are looking to show he was over-rated.

The Titans are running strong, with five wins in their last seven games. On the other hand, the Texans are greatly struggling with offensive line troubles and now looks like they'll be brining in a new QB next year. If you didn't see the Texans / Raiders game last week, don't let the box score fool you. While the Texans did come away with a road win there, the Texans were clearly outplayed for most of the game.

The Texans are giving up 116 yards per game on the ground, and face a Titans rushing attack that is fifth best in the NFL. Look for big days out of both the Titans running backs Travis Henry and the occasional carry to Lendale White, as well has Vince Young's 6-yard-per-carry rushing average from under center. In addition to the strong ground attack, the Titans should be able to exploit the Texans through the air as well: Houston is ranked 27th in pass defense, giving up 227 yards a game. As a team the Texans have only 24 sacks, which puts them in the bottom third, and nine interceptions, which puts them at 26th.

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee is most vulnerable to a strong rushing attack, and the Texans don't have that, still searching for a primary ball carrier and still dealing with offensive line woes. The Texans can't rush first, they really do not have linemen with the size or strength needed to create run lanes, or to hold the holes open for any reasonable length of time.

Look for this to be a quick game, with both teams trying to run the ball quite a bit. However, The Titans have a far-superior rushing attack, and should ride Travis Henry and Vince Young to an easy victory. 24-14 Tennessee.

Jets -3.5 (-106) over Bills
My system has liked the Jets all year, they are my most frequently selected team, and coincidentally my most profitable team. They like this game at home against a banged-up Bills team as well. The Bills are missing linebacker Angelo Crowell (broken leg) and backup Keith Ellison is also being banged up (knee). If Ellison can't go, or struggles, The Bills' third option is to play backup safety Coy Wire at weakside linebacker, a pretty decent mismatch. Look for the Jets to exploit this matchup for sure.

Besides being banged up on defense, the Bills have their #1 and #2 running backs (McGahee and the A-Train Anthony Thomas) playing at less than 100%. Look for the Jets to load the line and force the game on to the shoulders of the always-shaky J.P. Losman, who is averaging only 160 yards per game through the air. On offense, the Jets face a Bill defense that is the third worst in the AFC vs. the run, giving up an average of 140 yards per game. Look for the newly-successful Jets backfield tandem of Cedric Houston and Leon Washington to have a good outing. The Jets also have a pretty decent size advantage with both Cotchery and Coles over Bills corner Terrence McGee to exploit.

I have this game being decided by four, five or six points most of the time, so the 3.5 doesn't hurt bad enough to warrant paying the extra vig to move the line to -3, but if you're really worried about it, feel free to pay to move the game to -3. Jets 24, Bills 17.

Tease of the Week: Chargers -7.5, Cowboys -7 (6-point, 2-team -110 at Bodog)
I have the Chargers blowing out the Broncos anyways, but love the opportunity to tease this game down inside the three anyways. The Cowboys are not a true Wong teaser here, but I see this game being a close affair and really like the value of moving the favorite down inside the 3 here as well. The Cowboys and Saints both are in a need-to-win scenario, and I think the home team's edge here is too large to pass up. Note that Pinnacle is screwing with their lines trying to make it less easy to place teasers there, so you'd have to do a 6.5 point teaser with the Chargers to get that line down inside the 3, if you want to use Pinnacle. Worth a four-unit play in my system (2u if you're playing 1%-2% units).

<ul type="square">
Summary of Picks for Week 14[*] Jaguars -1 (-103) : 6.18u to win 6u[*] Titans -1 (+107) : 3u to win 3.21u[*] Jets -3.5 (-106) : 2.12u to win 2u[*] Chargers -1.5, Cowboys -1: 4.4u to win 4u[/list]

[Spellmen]

Great analysis. I was already on the Titans at a PK and had the Chargers/Jags in a wong tease, but I will probably go iwth you on the Jets as well

[whitepotatoe]

Very nice analysis. Especially nice since I teased Jax +8, Tenn +7.5, SD -1.5, Pit -1.5 with 6 point 3 teamers.

[wiper]

for whatever reason, i've been on the jets alot this year as well, and am 4-0 ags with them this year...

this week though, they better stop mcgahee...they sure didn't last time, and the bills aren't exactly a pushover..jets are playing well, but the bills seem to always play good away against them...

i'll stay away this week, but i understand the logic behind your bet..

[jets8781]

Just wondering if you think the titans/texans game is a trap at all. Thanks, and your analysis was verygood on all the picks. i also liked teasing cincy and the falcons.

[MacGuyV]

I don't agree with your picks much, but good analysis on Jets-Bills. Coy Wire is basically a joke and I don't really understand how he's still in the league. I do think JP's better arm in December Meadowlands could negate some of the edge the Jets have at QB though. As somebody who watches the Bills every week I really can't fathom why any team would throw the ball more than 15 times against them.
My concern with the Jags is pretty well summarized in the first meeting: they can dominate a game for 50 minutes and easily be up only 3 because they don't score.

[Dementia]

Good write ups. I went with the Colts -1, didn't bet the Titans/Texans, but I did take the Jets -3. Also, without giving away much of the formula if its secret, what information does your system compute specifically in the Colts game? Was the putrid run defense a big factor in it originally marking them for a loss last/this week, or are there more variables as well?

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wondering if you think the titans/texans game is a trap at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think the game is going to be close, what this line is saying is that the Titans are a better team on a neutral field but homefield advantage swings the game from the Titans being slightly favored to the Texans being slightly favored.

Due to the situation brewing at QB and fans dislike of the decision to pass on Young (and Bush) i think you're going to see a less-than-enthusiastic home crowd here and I think the homefield advantage is being overvalued. I don't really see this as a "trap" at all - despite the Titans as a consensus pick on Wagerline I think they get it done - after all, if 100% of the consensus picks lost you'd have a strong predictive force (to fade) on our hands, and its proven that the Wagerline consensus isn't wrong more than ~55% of the time...

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Good write ups. I went with the Colts -1, didn't bet the Titans/Texans, but I did take the Jets -3. Also, without giving away much of the formula if its secret, what information does your system compute specifically in the Colts game? Was the putrid run defense a big factor in it originally marking them for a loss last/this week, or are there more variables as well?

[/ QUOTE ]


there are quite a few variables, the rush defense is certainly a big factor, need to win is certainly a big factor here for the discrepancy (colts traditionally coasting in December is very much in effect), but in short I'm looking at everything.

In a nutshell I start with Sagarin ratings and adjust for things that Sagarin doesn't take in to effect (weather, accurate homefield advantage, need to win, injuries, etc), plus weight other factors that I feel are key to games which are not (apparently) weighted strongly enough in Sagarin ratings for gambling purposes...

[paperchamp]

You're right on about the home field. If the Titans get an early lead, expect the Texans fans to lose it. There will be a healthy amount of people rooting VY on.