Tricky turn

MrBig30 · #1 12-09-2006, 10:32 AM

So I decided to post some hands again, playing against total morons all the time, and only winning marginally so something is probably not right...

20/40
I open A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the CO and mister passive (34/3/.8) 3bets on the button. Loose donk (62/21/1.9) coldcalls from the BB.

Flop 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9,5SB)

I check, Mr passive bets, call, call

Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6,25BB)

Donkie checks. Whats our plan? Checkraise? Bet? Check-call?
Unless the passive button has KK it would seem we are in pretty good shape?

Dane S · #2 12-09-2006, 10:49 AM

Hmmm, first instinct is checkraise but it's not too farfetched to imagine him checking behind QQ or even AA/AK given his numbers and the scariness of the board. These guys in my experience are not thinking value. They play scared and will go to great lengths to avoid a checkraise, so I think seeing him check behind you is a real danger, and this would be a very unfortunate loss of value. That said, betting when we could have pulled off a checkraise is also a very unfortunate loss of value given the donk sandwiched between you. Do you have a more detailed read on CO than the numbers give? My feeling is it will take some math to solve this one. Anyone up for some Bayesian number crunching? It should be possible to figure out about what percentage of the time CO must bet AA/AK/QQ before a checkraise becomes most profitable. I think we can assume the donk is usually coming along... of course there are also some disaster scenarios where he's beating us and perhaps a few where he peeled flop very light and will now fold turn. But I would guess that 75%+ of the time he's just going to call along like a good donk should.

In sum, I don't know. Leaning towards bet I think, but convincing numbers could shift me back towards c/r easily.

Surf · #3 12-09-2006, 02:47 PM

If we take super-passives pf 3bet to mean JJ+ AK, AQs here's how the combos break down:

JJ: 0 combinations, 3 jacks accounted for
QQ: 6 combinations, going to check behind 100% I'd say
KK: 3 combinations, bets 100%
AA: 3 combinations, bets 75%?
AK: 9 combinations, bets 75%?
AQs: 3 combinations, checks behind 100%

Hands we are ahead of:
QQ (6)
AA (3)
AK (9)
AQs (3)
Total: 21
Hands that bet(weighted): 6*0+ 3*.75 + 9*.75 + 3*0 = 9 that bet, 12 that check.

Now, if fishy 3rd player calls any number of bets 75%, and folds to any bets 25%, we get this for c/r vs bet (assuming pf3 always calls 1 or 2 bets and never folds on the turn, pretty safe IMO)

EV of Bet when ahead: 1bb *1 + 1bb * .75 = +1.75 BB
EV of c/r when ahead: 12/21 *0 + 9/21(2bb + 2bb*.75) => 0+ .43*3.5 = ~+1.5BBs.

This ignores the occasional worst-case where villain has KK or fishy hit a straight or something and we lose an extra BB, so going for a c/r with these assumptions is actually a bit worse than it appears.

Surf

MrBig30 · #4 12-09-2006, 06:53 PM

Nice posts Dane S and Surf. However Surf, unfortunately we are not ahead of AQ...
Anyway it looks from your calculations like betting is better, especially of course if we are behind at the moment.

I checkraised. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Magikist · #5 12-09-2006, 07:10 PM

Something is probably not right, eh? I didn't even need to look at the actual hands you posted to figure out your problem. Hell, didn't even have to look past the first sentence.

[ QUOTE ]
playing against total morons all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

MrBig30 · #6 12-09-2006, 08:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Something is probably not right, eh? I didn't even need to look at the actual hands you posted to figure out your problem. Hell, didn't even have to look past the first sentence.

[ QUOTE ]
playing against total morons all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh? So I try to play against not-so-bright people if I can. Does that make me a bad person or something? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Surf · #7 12-09-2006, 09:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nice posts Dane S and Surf. However Surf, unfortunately we are not ahead of AQ...
Anyway it looks from your calculations like betting is better, especially of course if we are behind at the moment.

I checkraised. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, you're totally right. One of the problems is that although we are ahead of his range we are actually doing much worse when we actually land the c/r, plus opening ourselves up to a 3bounce.

Live and learn, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Surf