88. Bad call down. Or is it?

Burning_K · #1 12-08-2006, 05:11 PM

Villain is 35/11/3 or so.
I had a note on him telling me that he'll lead with any part of the board.
I think he semi-bluffs draws and scare cards sometimes.

Please don't comment on the PF cc... unless you actually like it for some reason... or it makes you really angry.
I hated it afterwards, Utg was a tight raiser.
I'm more interested in what people think of the post flop action, especially the turn.
I included the river because I want to know what people think of that too.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.70 BB

When villain donks the turn I didn't necessarily think he had a jack. I would discount trips a fair bit too as he would most likely slowplay those.
However immediately after the hand I thought the turn call was bad and that I would be behind a lot here. Like, if he's not betting the river with air then what exactly do I beat? Pretty much just the lower pocket pairs and maybe some spazzy bluff with KQ or something.

I think he would play a jack like this and Axs would be in his cold calling range too. Afterwards looking at the hand again I thought I would discount Ax a lot because I think it's more likely he's playing a made hand after I ck/r the flop.

Sushiglutton · #2 12-08-2006, 05:22 PM

I think calling down like u did is ur best play. Let him bluff away his money and get to show-down. Like u said, if he had trips he would probably CR the turn. River is a bad card and u will lose this most of the time. But getting ~9:1 in pot odds , I don't think folding is an option.

drzen · #3 12-08-2006, 09:51 PM

You think he will bluff-lead the turn into a flop raiser?

He might think you coldcalled with a midpair and now the J is a scare card. What are you likely to coldcall with from the CO if you are a reasonably tight player? A pair that isn't strong enough to reraise, big suited cards and maybe suited connectors if you play too much NL. The big cards and the suited connectors do not raise the flop.

So maybe he's firing because he has put you squarely on a mid pair that will now fold because it's scared of a pair of jacks?

Maybe because he has a pair too? You beat a pair of 5s, which is barely possible if he called with A5/A5s/K5s and lose to 99.

Maybe he just has a jack? That's quite likely. AJ/KJ/QJ/JT are all hands he might coldcall with. He'd likely bet with them on the flop. I don't know whether your read extends to knowing whether he's the kind of villain who'll take a stab but fold to resistance (very common for the slightly saner LAGtard) or one that will call the raise and try again or at least hope to hit his outs (not so common).

Sorry, longwinded way to say "I don't know". This would be entirely villain dependent for me. I'd probably fold to most guys though because they just don't donk with air when you raise and they aren't smart enough to put you on a pair or dumb enough to think you'll just fold to another bet.

Burning_K · #4 12-08-2006, 11:08 PM

drzen,

Yes, a lot of what you said I agree with.
More info on the villain - I'd already seen him donk into preflop/flop raisers/bettors with bottom or mid pair, so in this hand I figured he could be doing the same thing, with a slight possibility of betting something like Ax or KQ. Most likely he had a made hand of some sort.
I believe he is the type of villain to bet out from oop in the hopes of taking the pot, but will also call down with weak pairs if raised. I don't think he would bluff re-raise very often.
To be honest I don't think this villain thought much about what his opponents had, he seemed pretty bad.

During the hand I thought I was good against his range a lot even though I figured he had a hand of some sort.
As soon as the hand finished I thought I was actually quite bad vs his range because I was only beating the lower PP's if he had a legit hand on the turn and a lot of his cold calling range beat me, so I posted here to see what people thought and to also post my 'analysis' thoughts, which I'm doing now.

I tried to come up with a range that takes into account his actions (including his cold call) and to see if calling down from the turn would be +EV.
I think he most likely had Jacks or a pocket pair.
I actually had two ranges, the first with a bunch of Ax hands he might have and one without. I used the one without because I think it was unlikely he was bluffing into my flop re-raise with Ax, so I ended up with:

99-22,A5s,A6s,KJs,QJs,J6s+,A5o,A6o,KJo,QJo,J9o+,45s for his range on the turn.

Vs this my equity is not great.

Hand 1: 63.7797 % 63.33% 00.45% { 99-22, A6s-A5s, KJs, QJs, J6s+, 54s, A6o-A5o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }
Hand 2: 36.2203 % 35.77% 00.45% { 8c8h }

Hand 1: 74.0566 % 73.58% 00.47% { 99-22, A6s-A5s, KJs, QJs, J6s+, 54s, A6o-A5o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }
Hand 2: 25.9434 % 25.47% 00.47% { 8c8h }

From what I can work out though, I'm winning this on the river more than the 11.5% of the time I need to, so calling down seems correct on both the turn and river.

MacGuyV · #5 12-08-2006, 11:51 PM

Looks good - could have TT/99 or a J (that'd be a random flop donk though) but A5/77/. [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw also very possible.

tjfields · #6 12-09-2006, 01:47 PM

*Grunch*

The stop-n-go really sucks. Every time I get SnG-ed, calling down seems -EV. Call me weak-tight, but I fold the turn here, even against this opponent.