Making the transition

[Varian]

Hey!
I keep updating you on my progress as a microer. At the moment i am playing .25/0.5 at 888, Everest and Empire with about 6.48/100 BB (only 2803 hands though). I think i can sustain this winning rate. My bankroll finally reaches 300$. Here comes my question:
- Should i switch to 0.5/1 and if so, what site do you recommend? Please take bonus, etc... into account.
- Should i play more hands on my recent limit?
Thanks for comments, Varian

[OziBattler]

[ QUOTE ]
Everest and Empire with about 6.48/100 BB (only 2803 hands though). I think i can sustain this winning rate.

[/ QUOTE ]
be very careful about thinking this. variance is a bitch. that winrate is not really sustainable at a limit that is raked. sounds harsh but it is probably true, even if you play awesome. The reality is that you are probably running good and I am happy for you but you wont always run good.

I have no clue as to the quality of those games and what rake there is btw

so you have 300BB for 0.5/1, honestly i think moving up is a personal thing. for me, I like to be overrolled because I dont want to go busto and being overrolled means I dont feal the beats as much.

in the end, if you want to take a shot, take a shot, I do feel it is such a personal thing and depends on the individual.

of course if you are able to reload if you do go busto them you can mvoe up with <300BB......0.5/1 is a great limit to bonus whore. you can really build a roll quickly from $300 to $1000+ by doing all the first time bonuses etc that are out there...and you dont have to be a winner at the table to do so (I should know, earlier this year I grew my bankroll in a hurry by playing too much and barely breaking even)

goodluck with whatever you do.

ozi

[Poker Plan]

Congratulations on your progress to date.

Please don't take this personally- but I doubt that that win rate is sustainable. 2K(ish) hands is not even anywhere close to being able to determine a win rate.

Moving up / taking shots is a personal thing- there's no golden rules that "must" be adhered to.

Personally I would be looking for 10K (20K preferably) hands as an indication of likely win rate / ability.

Hope this helps.

Ian

[kerowo]

Moving up isn't so much a bank roll decision as a comfort level decision. If you think you are ready to move up then do it. However you should really understand that 2800 hands isn't very much at all. There are folks on the board who play that many in a weekend, some probably have hit that in a single session. Also understand that the likelyhood you can sustain a 6+BB/100 win rate is very slim. Very few people on this board have done it over 20 or 30k hands so the probability that you can and aren't just running goot is very small. The 300BB bank roll is a suggestion for avoiding going busto, the idea being that if you can't re-load from another source of money then you should start with that much. If you can re-buy from your disposable income then how much you have in your roll isn't as important as comfort level with the higher level.

[Bilgefisher]

100k Hands .5/1

Is it sustainable, maybe if your excellent poker player. This guy played about 100k hands before he knew.

[DrPhysic]

The hardest thing is the self discipline. Sure, move up and take a shot if you are comfortable with it.

But...
Set a br limit at which you move back down in advance.

Don't take it as a loss of face or self respect if the shot moving up didn't work THIS TIME.

Work your br back up to the comfort level for the higher level, then try it again using what you have learned from the first try.

Having a comfort level for moving back down is often the hardest part of moving up. If it works and you can sustain a good bb/100 at that level, super. Good on you.

But remember, almost all of us will eventually find a level at which the competition is just too tough. Not going broke trying that level, and moving back down to a level where we make money requires self discipline and planning.

Doc

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
100k Hands .5/1

Is it sustainable, maybe if your excellent poker player. This guy played about 100k hands before he knew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Name 5.

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying that the amount of people who post here who manage a win rate of <2BB/100 is going to so far outnumber those who are >3 that to assume you are one of the outlayers (outlyers?) after a good run over 2800 hands is self delusional.

[Varian]

I think the critical point is table selection; I play at sites that are extremely loose. I principally play only tables with >40% flopseen and don´t have problems to find one.
This week i made the pokeroffice promo of Empire. And the competition there does indeed not allow such a high winrate. And for some reason most of you guys play at stars,etc.. where the situation is pretty much the same. Most of 2+2 Microers could easily crush my limits at Everest or 888.
At my sites and my limits this winrate is really not a big deal.
In fact at Everest or 888 i am pretty sure to be one of the best players at my limits (<=0.25/0.5) (full ring); i know the other winning players very well. We respect the raises of the other and every one gets his shot at the stack of the fish.

What makes me sure about my winrate?
The situation at 0.25/0.5 is not that much different from the situation at 0.05/0.1 at these sites; i managed >=8/100 BB at 0.05/0.1 for more approx. 10K hands now. I´d stop updating my stats of this limit when i switched my main focus to the higher limit.

Please note: i am not expecting that i can sustain such a rate at the next leve, .5/1. I would be quite happy if i can realize something like 3/100 BB.

[bozlax]

This thread made me think the following things, in this order:

(Varian's first post)
1. Be careful about drawing too many conclusions from too few hands.
2. I wonder if this is a gimmick account. Miles, is that you?

(Everybody's responses)
3. I can't believe everybody's being so, uh, pleasant.

(Varian's last post)
4. Yup, gimmick. You're telling us that after 2800 hands you have reads on all the players at .25/.50? Even if they all moved with you from .05/.10, you only had 10k hands, there.

Seriously, Miles, are you THIS bored?

[Bilgefisher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
100k Hands .5/1

Is it sustainable, maybe if your excellent poker player. This guy played about 100k hands before he knew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Name 5.

I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying that the amount of people who post here who manage a win rate of <2BB/100 is going to so far outnumber those who are >3 that to assume you are one of the outlayers (outlyers?) after a good run over 2800 hands is self delusional.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%. I was trying to point out that 2800 hands is way to few to even guess at how your doing.

Saying your a winning player after 2800 hands is just plain retarded. (just for Bozlax)