75$ 226 ppl bubble time controversy!

[7duke7]

Alright, first post here at 2+2...I tried to make a couple different hand converters work to no avail but the story isn't too complicated so this shouldn't be too bad.

Full Tilt Poker Game #1369258146: $10,000 Guarantee (9342188), Table 10 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:15:15 ET - 2006/12/07
Seat 1: logansmalm (15,529)
Seat 2: kemp4020 (7,648)
Seat 3: JONAH J (9,251)
Seat 5: 9to5 (5,990)
Seat 6: reallySCARYname (6,485)
Seat 7: 7Duke7 (11,496)
Seat 9: EASYRIDER50 (19,320)
Antes posted, blahblah
EASYRIDER50 posts the small blind of 250
logansmalm posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 7Duke7 [6c 6s]
kemp4020 folds
JONAH J folds
9to5 folds
reallySCARYname folds
7Duke7 raises to 2,100
EASYRIDER50 folds
logansmalm raises to 15,479, and is all in

Typical bubble situation in a normal stack/structure $75 226 entrant mtt. 15 minutes prior to this hand I witnessed my opponent raise from cutoff+1 with K6o (revealed by having to call ss sb all in from odds). I basically had the guy pinned as someone that wanted to use his bigstack to make some strong bubble plays. In the past 30 days I've had 6 finishes within the final 5 tables of 200+ entrant tournys without one FT, so I've been trying to reassess my late-game play.

Bottom line: If I call and win the hand I'm 3rd in chips and ready to cruise to the final table, if I call and lose I'm out 28th with top 27 paid. If I fold I'm below average stack and facing the same situation I've been in 6 times in the past month - smallballing right before the final table.

With the reads I had, I gave my opponent a fairly wide range. I figured he would probably play AA KK and maybe even QQ differently, so in my mind there were only 5-6 hands that had me worse than a coinflip. However, even against a range that would make the call +EV, is it a good move to put myself in an almost guaranteed coinflip here? Please give me your thoughts!

[RichC.]

raise smaller = stop hitting the bet pot button. 1500 is fine, 1350 is good too.

Fold to the push. gamble when a shorter stack busts and you get your money back.

[TheBlueMonster]

hand converter

I think at best you have a coinflip. I'm gonna take a wild guess and say he has a better pocket pair. I don't think you need to risk all your chips in this type of situation. Wait till the bubble pops and fold.

[DesperateMath]

I don't like a call here - two reasons; 1) It sounds like the guy has been bullying the smaller stacks, so it doesn't really make sense to go after the only guy who can knock you out, so he probably has something - that something could be a lower pair, but it's probably a bluffing hand like kj off, j9s etc. so... 2) If you call, at worst the guys a 70/30 dog, and at best he's a solid coin flip.

While I'd love to go 3rd, I'd rather do it by moving my chips, not calling them off. And I hate calling knowing I'm probably a coinflip.

[7duke7]

i don't normally pot when stealing blinds, as i know even just 1.5x bb does the trick, but in this situation i felt i had such a strong read on the guy i wanted to pot it so that he'd resteal with trash...right idea i guess, but wrong hand - if i had a hand like AJ, the play is much more effective obviously. still i'd like to know if the philosophy of volunteering the coinflip for basically a 43/57 shot at $400+ or -$100 would justify making the call

[DesperateMath]

If you're doing well enough in a tournement that you have a nice solid chip stack on the bubble, then you're probably gonna be able to do the same after the bubble. If you think that running your chips up another 15k is less than 57%, then take the coin flip. But it sounds like you've got a much better shot folding and picking a better spot.

[7duke7]

so i'm gathering that even though the pot and reads may have been right to justify a call, it wouldn't make calling the right thing to do. when do i post the results?

[RichC.]

look at your table and the chip stacks here again. you are almost double two of those stacks, so dumping 2100 here leaves you still ahead of half the table. folding here is fine, so is a flip, but i dont like the flip when i can do a bit better and find better spots to pick up chips on the bubble. this is one of those small edges you can pass up now. you are better off picking up chips against the other medium stacks by pushing over them on steals.

[DesperateMath]

Well I wouldn't agree that your read is telling you to always call; I wasn't there, but the one time you mentioned might be the one time he makes that play. And I can't say that the maths is always correct - EV doesn't take into account the players personal value. Again, I'd ask whether a coinflip for 15k more is the best situation for you to find yourself in. It's a bit more philosophical than doing the math, but I think it's just as important. Your analysis suggest you probably are making the kind of descisions that would allow you to get these chips (and more) over time. So maybe the coinflip is best for you.

I'd love to know what you decided to do. I guess you call, he has some junk hand that you have to race against and he wins?

[Cornell Fiji]

Welcome to the forums!

I limp this preflop with mid pairs here 22 bbs deep and play my hand mainly for set value.

If it is your read that the villain is just pushing his big stack around then you have to call this. Assuming that he is raising you with the top 10% of starting hands then his range is (22+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo.) And his raising standards should be even wider than that if he is bullying to build a big stack. Assuming that he will push with all of these hands equally your hand is 46% to win against that range. The dead money in this pot makes this a marginal call. [If you do not have the program yet I would reccomend going to www.pokerstove.com to download their free software that allows you to input hand ranges and see how you fair against those ranges] If you don't believe that he will be pushing with 22-55, here then this makes your call more questionable.

I think the best advice for this situation is not to get yourself into this situation again. Limp this hand and if you pick it up on the button and feel like you should be raising then go a little smaller with a 3bb raise to 1500 (which would let you get off of your hand to a push)