understanding swings

[jordiepop]

i posted a time or two about a 50 bb swing driving me nuts. i play 2-4 and i have about 1200 on FT..200 seems like alot of money ya know. its really irritating to be trying to play well and get fu(ed a lot in one session or two.



anyone else get really annoyed by variance. any tips on how to deal with it.

[lzfsb3]

I am going through some bad variance at Bodog right now. Here is how I deal with it:
1. Don't play for a day or two and re-read different sections of my favorite Poker Books.
2. Go down in limits
3. Play a lot tighter and try to get a winning session under my belt by only playing the best hands.
4. Enter a low buy-in SitNgo and just make the biggest donkey plays I can to get it out of my system. Kind of a stess reliever. Usually a .60 cent SitNgo on Absolute because everyone can afford to lose .60 cents for a couple of SitNGo sessions. Who knows, sometimes I end up winning them and that helps, too. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Usually this will work for me. Good luck, variance is a cruel mistress.

[Poker Plan]

The first step is to try and ascertain what proportion of the loss is pure variance and what proportion is mistakes.


Work on the mistakes. Forget about the rest.

Ian

[jordiepop]

lossing a 25 bb pot when someone rivers a 2 outer or another 15 bb pot when someone has to stay for that gut shot. thats all i can see. its ridiculous

[Poker Plan]

In those kind of situations, if you can prove you were a big favuorite to win (which it sounds like you were), you just have to find a way to take pride in the fact that you played it right and will profit big in the long run. If those monkeys never made those 2 / 4 outers on the river, they wouldn't bother playing them any more and your cash cow has suddenly gone AWOL.

Hope this helps.

Ian

[xSCWx]

I play 2/4 and had roughly the same swing tonight. I had AA and some guy was raising the hell out of me with QQ on a KJ66 board. Of course, the Q came at the river, and he provided to talk [censored] to me and tell me about how it was a good play because he didn't put me on the king.

I kept my cool and broke him about a half hour later. As they said, if they are beating you with dumb plays they will lose out in the long run, just stick around and don't tilt.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
i posted a time or two about a 50 bb swing driving me nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually a pretty small swing even for a very good player. Try this simulator:

http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm

Select the total winnings radio button and enter your numbers. Then click the "Chart It" button a few times and observe how much the black line bounces around. The black line is one possible set of results you might actually see. That's variance.

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]

4. Enter a low buy-in SitNgo and just make the biggest donkey plays I can to get it out of my system. Kind of a stess reliever. Usually a .60 cent SitNgo on Absolute because everyone can afford to lose .60 cents for a couple of SitNGo sessions. Who knows, sometimes I end up winning them and that helps, too. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]



[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO, I play primarily MTT's with some STT and when I run bad / start tilting... I enter the LOWEST buyin ring cash game and start playing like a donkey!!!

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

4. Enter a low buy-in SitNgo and just make the biggest donkey plays I can to get it out of my system. Kind of a stess reliever. Usually a .60 cent SitNgo on Absolute because everyone can afford to lose .60 cents for a couple of SitNGo sessions. Who knows, sometimes I end up winning them and that helps, too. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]



[/ QUOTE ]

LMAO, I play primarily MTT's with some STT and when I run bad / start tilting... I enter the LOWEST buyin ring cash game and start playing like a donkey!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

A little pot-limit Omahahaha will usually cure my tilt.

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i posted a time or two about a 50 bb swing driving me nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's actually a pretty small swing even for a very good player.

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't make sense, does it? I meant that even a very good player can expect bigger swings.