TPDK against TAG PRRer

sharpie · #1 12-04-2006, 09:09 PM

28/17/2.2 over 700. Could be one of you guys. He does a few weird donkbet things into preflop raisers with various holdings, and stuff like raising the flop with low pair for a cheap showdown.

What do you think about calling the turn and folding the river UI?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero???

Jiggymike · #2 12-04-2006, 09:22 PM

I kind of like donking the turn against this player. Actually I don't know, things just got strange, he is representing the goods too. What is his 3-betting range preflop?

ILOVEPOKER929 · #3 12-04-2006, 09:23 PM

I would like to write more about this hand but I have to watch a movie right now. For now I will just say that I fold the flop here against this particular opponent.

Nick C · #4 12-04-2006, 09:40 PM

Since a free-showdown 3-bet seems unlikely from this Villain, I guess we're really looking at a pure outs question here.

We're getting almost 10:1, so 4 outs or so will do.

AA = 6 combos (5 outs)

AK = 8 combos (3 outs)
KQs = 2 combos (2 1/2 outs)

KK = 1 combo (0 outs)
99 = 3 combos (0 outs)

(6 x 5) + (8 x 3) + (2 x 2 1/2) = 59 outs overall, which we divide by the 20 combos to get about 3 outs on average.

I'm not claiming this range is completely precise, but then again widening it won't help us, if we're assuming we're beat on the turn.

I don't enjoy checkraise-folding, but maybe that's what we should do here after we checkraise and get 3-bet?

Disconnected · #5 12-04-2006, 10:16 PM

These are the hands that seem to get me in a ton of trouble (probably missing some basic concepts [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] -- like getting myself into calldown mode too often OOP). I could see folding the flop, as your hand doesn't stack up well to the preflop 3-bettor, but he's aggressive *enough* and you've got a BDFD that I think I would peel.

Here's where I get myself into trouble. I c/r like you did and then call down from there if he 3-bets me, which seems to be a bad position to be in (especially because I'm usually shown the goods unless I draw out). OTOH, I've got issues letting go of TP on a board that gives villain some bluffing/semibluffing opportunities.

If you've got villain beat on the turn, what are the chances that he's going to expose himself to potentially 3 extra big bets by 3-betting you (you could cap him on the turn)? Probably small enough chance that you *should* fold the turn, but it will feel like a potentially terrible fold, at least to me.

Likely, if you're ahead, he uses his position to showdown cheaply with a made hand after you c/r, or if he's on a big ace (not AK), gets away from it. I make the bet like you did because I don't want to let him check through a draw on the turn, but I'm just not confident of playing it from there.

So, what about c/c the turn, and then lead the river? Even if you call a raise on the river, you're probably getting pretty close to what you'd get when ahead, but you'd lose less when behind. We let draws come in cheap, but is that the price we pay for being OOP? Perhaps, looking back to the flop, it argues for just check/folding, even though we might have enough outs to continue. In a way, we're getting RIO, in the sense that we will have a hard time extracting full value when we make our hand.

I don't think I gave any good answers, but since I'm so unconfident in this hand, maybe someone will jump in and help me clarify my thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Oh, and if you do call the turn, I think you have to call the river, even UI.

Disconnected · #6 12-04-2006, 10:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to write more about this hand but I have to watch a movie right now. For now I will just say that I fold the flop here against this particular opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please write some more when the movie is over. I've got to go, but I'm confused about the best way to play the hand, so I'll be checking later [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

latefordinner · #7 12-04-2006, 10:39 PM

I think we are checkraising precisely b/c we can fold to a 3bet from this player. It sucks, but so does drawing so thin.

I peel this flop always.

I don't know what to do on the turn. I usually donk bet/call if raised and check/call river if raised on turn.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #8 12-05-2006, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would like to write more about this hand but I have to watch a movie right now. For now I will just say that I fold the flop here against this particular opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please write some more when the movie is over. I've got to go, but I'm confused about the best way to play the hand, so I'll be checking later [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok just got done watching "Scoop" Nice decent movie. If anyone has ever seen a movie where Scarlett Johansson gets naked, please let me know cuz im tired of watching her not take her clothes off. Ok back to the hand.

First I want to talk about the flop a little more. I see that many people would call the flop here including the author of this thread who I believe is a winning player. It seems tempting cuz the hero can even turn a combo draw if the Tc or Qc hits, and if the hero turns a regular flushdraw he can still have up to 15 outs to win the hand when his pair outs are live. Additionally, the hero may even be able to win the pot unimproved if he makes a semi-bluff bet or check/raise if he turns a draw. Against the right opponent this idea certainly has value. Heres why I would fold the flop.

The hero is raising UTG, and the player that 3bet him looks like a decent player. I think the villains hand range is going to look like this: 88-AA,AQo,AJs,KQs. Other tweener hands include 77,AJo,ATs,KQo. Against this range I think the heros pair outs are very tainted, and the hero is against a good player which means the implied odds hes getting when he hits his hand will not be as high as usual. Since in theory a good player will not pay off as often when hes trailing, and he will extract the maximum more often when hes still winning, should the hero hit his hand. So this is why I would usually fold the flop in this spot with KJ. The fact that the hero can turn a big draw is meaningful but I dont think it is enough to overcome the negative side of this situation but I am not positive and it could certainly be the case that I am underestimating the value of having a backdoor flush draw in this situaiton. I would be very interested in seeing an argument for calling the flop. Now about the turn.

In general, I dont like check/raising the turn or even betting the turn if I dont know how to react to more aggression. Against many players I play against, this is an easy call down once 3bet, against others, this is an easy fold. In both cases I would check/raise the turn without hestitation. But there is a grey area, and this guy seems to be in that realm since sharpie appears to not be sure what to do once reraised. If handling a reraise is likely to put you in a position where youre going to make mistakes one way or the other I prefer taking a different line. Perhaps bet/calling the turn, or check/calling the turn with the intention of donk/calling the river. I dont really know which line is best, but I do know this much. I think whenever youre out of postion like this and you hit a decent hand on the turn, I think the better the player the more apt you should be to donk here.

The reason I say this is cuz a good player is going to play the turn very well, meaning hes going to take his free card when he thinks he needs it, he'll often check the turn with marginal made hands If he thinks showing down cheaply is the best line vs you, and he will know how to bet/fold in the right situations. What this all means is, against a very good player, checkraising the turn here with this type of hand doesnt have as much value as one may think. By donking the turn, you never let the good player take his free card, and you never let him showdown cheaply, and you never get 3bet pwned by a better hand either. Sometimes you'll run into a freeshowdown raise, but thats ok cuz you have a strong enough hand that can handle that pressure. And by donking more often with these type of hands you will now be able to set up cheaper bluff plays on the turn by donking instead of feeling obligated to check/raise bluff cuz you think that line has more credibility given the way you normally play. And believe me when I tell you this, handling turn donks is not easy no matter how good you are, so by doing this you are going to be putting the good player in many difficult spots which translates into more money for you cuz he will inevitably make a mistake by raising when he shouldnt, calling down when he shouldnt or even folding a profitable live draw when he shouldnt.

By checking the turn you will allow the good player to stay in control when the bets double and you will be at the whims of his good decision making. When you have a medium strength hand that can handle a raise, and is even strong enough to checkraise against a turn autobettor/showdown monkey, strongly consider donking instead when youre up against a good player and put him on his heels. I promise you he will not enjoy it.

SparkyDog · #9 12-05-2006, 01:33 AM

I'd fold the flop, and I think it's a pretty clear one too.

sharpie · #10 12-05-2006, 01:49 AM

Nice post ILP. I like the idea of a turn donk and it's something I don't think I do often enough against good players.

As for the flop peel I did a quick effective outs calculation and against a range of AJ+, KQs, and 88+ we have a little over 5 outs. We won't extract as much as him when we hit and are ahead vs behind, but on the other hand we'll sometimes get a free card. For those interested below are the hands in his range, number of combos in paranthesis, and number of outs we have against those hands. I gave us 1.5 outs for the BDFD in all cases to make it simple. We'll have a little less than that when we're up against a set.

AA, KK, 99 (12) 1.5

AK, KQs, AJ, QQ, JJ, (36) 4.5

AQ, TT, 88 (28) 7.5

I think donking the turn is better now, but as played how do you all play to his 3 bet with the read? I'm wondering about the concept of calling without odds for our outs with the intention of folding the river UI as he'll probably check behind a worse hand on the river. If we have 3 effective outs we're investing a portion of a bet so we only have to be ahead and have him check behind a very small fraction of the time.