Weird AA line...

[Troll_Inc]

Working backwards, since we know that MP2 pushed back:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
say MP2 has a set the AAxx hand has a 16% pot equity. I'd say 25% of the time they have a set.

Let's say they are playing some raggedy ass crap and have TTP, I'd give that happening 25% of the time.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=
That's a little better 28% pot equity on the flop.

I'll be generous and say that 50% of the time you are just up against Q***, there you are just 47% dog.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5=

So before MP2 pushes back, there should be some fold equity You'd have a better idea how often MP2 folds to a raise here. For now, I'll guess that it is 40%, but that's probably being generous.

****** Doing some math

So 40% of the time AA hand wins ~$80. That's EV +32.


** OF THE TIMES THAT MP2 PUSHES BACK AND IT IS ALL IN **
60% of the time MP2 pushes, AA comes over the top and of course MP2 is calling.
So AA is commiting ~200, pot will be ~$440.
25% of the time, you have a situation where AA dude has a 16% chance at winning $440 pot, that is a EV of +$70. However, 84% of the time he loses $200...for -EV -$168.

Another 25% of the time its (0.28)(440)-(0.72)(200).
+123 - 144 = +21

50% of the time its (.47)(440)-(.53)(200).
207-106 = +101

Overall for the times both go all in
(0.25)(-98) = -25
(0.25)(+21) = +21
(0.50)(+101)= 50.5
Total + 47


Overall then

60% of time it goes to the flop + 47 = + 28
40% fold equity of $80 = + 32

So pushing here with a reraise on the flop, based on these wild assumptions, and probable fault math, shows that the AA hand pushing nets an EV of +$60.