AK against constant 3-better

[Heine]

Ok, so the read is, fairly tight player 23/18 over 150+hands. He three bets like its his job. I figured he'd lay down AK, and anything below QQ (and possibly QQ). This is the third or 4th 3-bet i've faced in my last 6 raises.

My image is tight, i've been catching some cards and basically taking down most pots with c-bets.

I'm new to this level, ergo the basic preflop question and help needed.

So given the read, is this a bad 4-bet?

FullTiltPoker (6 max) - $0.50/$1

Seat 1: Hero ($234.10)
Seat 2: SB ($196.30)
Seat 3: Villian ($126.85)
Seat 4: UTG ($36.80)
Seat 5: UTG+1 ($114.30)
Seat 6: SampsonSimps ($25.40), is sitting out
Cards1978 posts the small blind of $0.50
Blomiz posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Heine [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
UTG calls $1
mattk20 folds
Hero raises to $4.50
SB calls $4
Villian raises to $21
UTG folds
Heine raises to $140
SB folds
Villian $105.85, and is all in

[homeslice]

his UTG limp/raise pf usually indicates real strength like KK+, you're most likely behind here. You just have to fold and pick a better spot.

[Wu36]

Seems fine to me.
edit: he didn't limpraise, utg folded.

[Imrahil]

I don't think it's bad. Based on your read he could be squeezing here.

[Heine]

homeslice, the converter didn't work out so hot. so i had to do it by hand.

This looks like a steal on my part, from the weak UTG limp. So he three bet me yet again from the BB. So i repop'ed him. Thats how the action should read.

[OneFive]

Ok, I did the math for this one and figured I would share...

First, after discussion with Heine we put his 3 bet range at 99+ and AQ+ (arguments to expanded this further would just make the EV higher in the end). Second, I am assuming he would call with JJ+ not KK/AA only.

So, there are 48 possible holdings for villain each pair (30 = 6*4 for 99-QQ + 3 AA +3 KK since we hold one of each) and AK/AQ 9 a piece because we hold one of each. Of these combos we assume he folds 99,1010, AQ and AK, to the 4 bet. That’s 30 of the 48 combos (62.5% = lots of dead money!).

So we win the pot of ~$42 62.5% of the time = EV of +$26.25

Now, when he calls with JJ+ (37.5%) we will win 34.995% of the time (used pokerstove with AKo vs JJ+). This means of 37.5% of the time villain calls, we will win the final pot of $253.7 34.995% of the time.

37.5*.34995= 13.12% of the time Hero wins $253.7

253.7 * .13.12 = EV of +$33.29

Now, the bad news. When he calls we lose $253.7 65.045% of the time.

so, a total of 37.5 * 0.65045 = villain wins $253.7 24.39% of the time.

$253.7 * 0.2439 = EV of -$61.88

Putting it all together we get 26.25+33.29-61.88= negaitve 2.34!

Ok, now, if we look at Heine’s assumption that Villain only calls with AA/KK (I did the math, but don’t want to write out again, the concept is the same as above) we only get called 12.5% of the time and our total EV ends up being about positive 17. I think this shows the enormity of being able to (correctly) know villains calling range. If Heine has the correct read here it is defiantly a + EV play. If he’s just a tiny bit off (villain calls with JJ/QQ) it’s a slightly negative play.

[Heine]

Yeah, QQ is the breaking point, if he starts calling with JJ it kills the EV. If he's folding JJ (I think i would to that 4 bet for my stack) then its +5.4 ev in my excel sheet.