#1
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Weird AA line...
This is a hand someone I am coaching played.
MP2 is like 44/18/5. What do you think of this line? $200 PL Omaha Seat 1: MP2 ( $528.16 ) Seat 10: MP1 ( $355 ) Seat 6: Hero ( $208.40 ) Seat 2: MP3 ( $167.94 ) Seat 9: UTG+2 ( $78.40 ) Seat 3: CO ( $170.50 ) Seat 4: Button ( $57.44 ) Seat 5: SB ( $67.45 ) Seat 8: UTG+1 ( $152.40 ) Seat 7: UTG ( $196 ) Dealt to Hero A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises $12, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Button folds, SB calls. Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets $45, SB folds, Hero raises $192, UTG+2 folds, MP2 raises $294, Hero is all-In. |
#2
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Re: Weird AA line...
I just give up this flops in general, but vs that villian play is ok.
- B |
#3
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Re: Weird AA line...
it's a line I've taken when tilting or drunk, and I don't think it's +EV vs. any kind of largeish field. Give him a gutshot and another backdoor flush and I could get behind it against specific opponents. What is he pushing here that we're equitable against? TJQK?
and you can coach donators but can't even look over a few measly NL hands? After all I've done for you? At the very least you could stop sitting at my tables. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#4
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Re: Weird AA line...
This play looks fine against a highly aggressive player who plays too many hands. Also, he has gotten to see the other two players show no interest.
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#5
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Re: Weird AA line...
My primary concern with this line is that you are never a big favorite when called and against this aggro of a player he's going to be calling a lot. People often make incorrect assumptions about laggy players and how thin they bet the flop. Hero's hand is AA here always and it's a multiway pot, so assuming the Villian is bluffing with a hand AA beats or is in great shape against is a huge leak.
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#6
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Re: Weird AA line...
Sorry I should have said the game is loose-passive. Players checking the flop in position against the PFR doesn't mean a whole lot.
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#7
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Re: Weird AA line...
I think that hero's hand is wider then AA here. I see preflop raisers c/r sets fairly frequently against aggressive opponents, and if he has a good image he might have FE vs two pair. That said, I'd really rather have more then two outs of villian does have a set.
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#8
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Re: Weird AA line...
Nah. He's never raising anything but aces out of the blinds, which is something he needs to work on. If he has a set he has AAQQ, AA66, or AA22, all of which are very unlikely and give the villian a lot of room to call with a pretty wide range profitably.
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#9
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Re: Weird AA line...
I wouldn't suggest this as standard, just something to do once in a while especially when the right player bets.
Standard on this flop would be to bet. |
#10
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Re: Weird AA line...
Working backwards, since we know that MP2 pushed back:
http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5= say MP2 has a set the AAxx hand has a 16% pot equity. I'd say 25% of the time they have a set. Let's say they are playing some raggedy ass crap and have TTP, I'd give that happening 25% of the time. http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5= That's a little better 28% pot equity on the flop. I'll be generous and say that 50% of the time you are just up against Q***, there you are just 47% dog. http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/s...amp;h4=&h5= So before MP2 pushes back, there should be some fold equity You'd have a better idea how often MP2 folds to a raise here. For now, I'll guess that it is 40%, but that's probably being generous. ****** Doing some math So 40% of the time AA hand wins ~$80. That's EV +32. ** OF THE TIMES THAT MP2 PUSHES BACK AND IT IS ALL IN ** 60% of the time MP2 pushes, AA comes over the top and of course MP2 is calling. So AA is commiting ~200, pot will be ~$440. 25% of the time, you have a situation where AA dude has a 16% chance at winning $440 pot, that is a EV of +$70. However, 84% of the time he loses $200...for -EV -$168. Another 25% of the time its (0.28)(440)-(0.72)(200). +123 - 144 = +21 50% of the time its (.47)(440)-(.53)(200). 207-106 = +101 Overall for the times both go all in (0.25)(-98) = -25 (0.25)(+21) = +21 (0.50)(+101)= 50.5 Total + 47 Overall then 60% of time it goes to the flop + 47 = + 28 40% fold equity of $80 = + 32 So pushing here with a reraise on the flop, based on these wild assumptions, and probable fault math, shows that the AA hand pushing nets an EV of +$60. |
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