MyTurn's bowl picks

[pirateboy]

I must be the only one who really likes Nevada -2.

[mmbt0ne]

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West Virginia -6.5 v Georgia Tech
I got in at -5, but still a play here

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I'd play this up to 12 about now.

[mmbt0ne]

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And ND travels better than anyone in the nation.

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ND couldn't even overwhelm the bootleg GT fans in the season-opener.

LSU travels better than anyone in the country. And even if the Sugar Bowl is 2/3 the advantage of Death Valley it's still top 10 best HFA's in the country.

[Austiger]

A warning about Auburn:

Playing 12 straight weeks makes a team look a lot worse than they really are. See Bama losing their last 3 this year and LSU getting stomped by Georgia in the SECCG last year. After resting up over XMas, LSU blasted Miami in the bowl game. Auburn looked very good early in the season vs. WSU and LSU, but they really got beat up in the LSU game and never got their legs under them due to never having an off week. After last year's bowl game, I really think Auburn will be rested and motivated to beat Nebraska.

[TNAchicago]

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POTW: Wake/Louisville O48.5 me = slow
LSU -7.5 v Notre Dame
Oklahoma -7.5 v Boise St
Louisville -9 v Wake Forest

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Did LSU really open at -7.5?. X-mas this early?

[Black Aces 518]

Oklahoma/Boise U 51

Sooners have been a ball control offense, and this likely continues with the size advantage on the lines. Boise is much more run-based than in previous years, but likely won't have much offensive success with the speed and size disadvantage. I see this along the lines of 24-10 Oklahoma.

[Thremp]

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And ND travels better than anyone in the nation.

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ND couldn't even overwhelm the bootleg GT fans in the season-opener.

LSU travels better than anyone in the country. And even if the Sugar Bowl is 2/3 the advantage of Death Valley it's still top 10 best HFA's in the country.

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I was going to write a satire out. But you are wrong. GL next year.

[Post-Oak]

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MyTurn do you see any value in teasing some of these lines Wong style?

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Wong only recomends using teasers for NFL football. In his book, he specifically points out that the charts contained therein only pertain to NFL, and it should not be assumed that other forms of football would have the same/similiar data.

I know that bookmakers consider teasers as pure suckers' bets when used for NCAA football. It was a guy who worked in Vegas helping to make lines who told me this. I know the reason is that magic numbers are not nearly as important in NCAAF as in the NFL. I am not clear why that is the case, but it seems to have to do with the lower level of play and lack of fundamentals, as well as the rules of NCAA overtimes.

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I know that these aren't as good of +EV as in the NFL but seems in these bowl games they should have some value.


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OK, I just read this part. So you know this then.

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They are all 2 Team +100 teasers on Pinny for college.
-Brendan

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And now I just read this part. I didn't realize NCAA teasers were +100. I guess they could be +EV then. I don't know.

I just wouldn't call them "Wong" teasers then, as he has never advocated teasing NCAA games, as far as I know. And he definitely did not advocate it in "Sharp Sports Betting".

[MyTurn2Raise]

the 'wonged' straight teasers don't work in college due to the wider range of possible outcomes

however, I have begun to look in doing them for games where the total points expected is lower. This is sort of a test for a tighter range on expected outcomes. I'm seeing nice things. I plan on getting all of this put together over the offseason for NCAA data going back to '94.

[brendanb438]

MyTurn any of that info leaning towards any good teaser picks for these bowl games? I am willing to be a guinea pig and bet like $20 a teaser or something.

-Brendan