*Live* Blind Stealing... Risk vs. Reward

[Grizwold]

First and foremost, I must preface this by saying: This must be live. This is such an important factor in this discussion because the rake in live low limit games can often take 50% or more from a pot which has only 2-3 players that see the flop. Even as low as .02/.04 I can see more value in blind stealing that at small stakes live. In all forms of poker, stealing blinds is a great skill, and will add at least marginally to your win rate. In tournaments, blind stealing is of great importance, especially in late stages of a tournament. But in live low limit game with ball breaking rake, is it even worth it to try? Although it is not extremely common to be in a situation which offers a chance to steal blinds, I still find it does come up often enough to make a significant difference over the long run.

There are a number of situations I find myself in where I feel there is a good chance I can pick up a very small pot by just betting. But still, the circumstances will often be such that I bet more than the pot which I am trying to steal. So it seems pretty straight-forward... if I am betting $3 to try to steal $2 in the pot, I should be at least 60% certain my opponent will fold. So what if I am? In any blind stealing situation at low limits, the question is often can I be 50% sure (or more) that my opponent will fold. This seems like a bet with much too high variance and very small expectation. Is it even worth it?

Also I sometimes find myself in a situation where I open for a raise preflop in middle position or maybe later. Then I get no callers except for the big blind. (This is not a common occurrence, but it still happens) So it is 2 players to the flop, and 2.5 SB in the pot before flop action even starts (because huge rake ate the pot up). Big blind checks, I will certainly continue, but wtf, should I just fold now? lol. Often after a small no action pot like this, I will find myself up .5 SB or so, while I risked 3 SB to get there. Is blind stealing even an issue at 2/4, 3/6, 4/8? I see usually the casino is doing most of the blind stealing.

[Dagger78]

Certainly blind stealing at low limit live isn't THAT important of a skill.

First the situation comes up so rarely. Maybe once every few hours do I have it folded to me in the CO or on the button in 5/10 or lower game.

I'll still value raise all my good hands, but I'm only "stealing" with my marginal hands if I think the blinds are very likely to fold. Playing a hand like J9s heads up vs a loose Big blind and you're just asking the house to take most of your profit.

Just be careful who you're stealing from.

As a funny no content side note. I did attempt a few blind steals in a tightish 5/10 at turning stone, after raising from the button and having the BB muck AKo faceup since "he doesn't like palying for small pots"

I just think the profitable blind "steals" in low limit live games are hard to find.

[Jiggymike]

I wouldn't bother stealing in a live game, SSHE basically tells you not to because of the rake. The places you are playing do seem to be hitting the rake pretty hard...50% of a pot? The rule is supposed to be 10% up to like $4 or maybe an extra buck some places (casinos in AC usually have a fair 3/6 rake although still high). If you are playing 2/4 then there is REALLY not point, MAYBE at like 5/10 but the blinds in these situations call so often that you just need a super weak tight idiot in the blinds to make stealing profitable (usually they won't rake if there is no flop). In these situations you do your best by just trying to win massive pots with all their dead money in it.

[Grizwold]

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I'll still value raise all my good hands, but I'm only "stealing" with my marginal hands if I think the blinds are very likely to fold.

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Maybe there is more value to be made from strong hands by just calling in this situation? I think maybe it depends on just how strong the hand is. In this instance I am not talking about a stealing hand, but a hand with powerful high card value.

[ QUOTE ]
As a funny no content side note. I did attempt a few blind steals in a tightish 5/10 at turning stone, after raising from the button and having the BB muck AKo faceup since "he doesn't like palying for small pots"

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lol

[Grizwold]

[ QUOTE ]
The places you are playing do seem to be hitting the rake pretty hard...50% of a pot? The rule is supposed to be 10% up to like $4 or maybe an extra buck some places... If you are playing 2/4 then there is REALLY not point...

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Yea, sometimes the rake can get very high if it is HU after a preflop raise. I play in LA and I'm very young, poor, and still learning a lot, so I play mostly 3/6 and 2/4. In the cardroom I play at, the max rake is $3 at a full 2/4 or 3/6 table, but there is also a $1 jackpot drop. I'm not sure if it is the laws in CA or the rules of the cardrooms I play at, but if there is a called raise preflop, or any called bets on the flop or later, that allows the max rake. It is not based on a percentage of the pot. So a preflop raise (if called) will rake $4 from a 2/4 or 3/6 game. In 2/4 this will leave only $4-6 in the pot, and at 3/6 it would leave about $8 in the pot. So really it can be like 35-50% of the pot is dropped if there is a caller. If there is no caller, still it will be $2 gone from the pot, resulting in $1-3 profit.

[raphet99]

If it folded to you OTB in a small stakes live game, you need a table change. Stealing blinds is worthless. If it is folding around, usually the button and SB are thinking chop chop and it is in my best interest to fold if I don't have a jackpot hand...keeping the game light. I find it is better to open raise from middle position with strong holdings and evaluate your chances of stealing on the flop with a c-bet depending how many come in.

[Dagger78]

Recently at turning stone again. they drop "10%" up to $4, but that's not quite true. They rake $2 when the pot is $11, another dollar at $21(I think) and another at $40. it's a pretty steep rake if the pot is raised preflop, called by the BB and there is a simple C-bet postflop. In a $4/8 game that's $16 pot on the flop with a $2 rake.

[jjshabado]

Foxwoods takes $2 on the flop in 4-8, and I assume but don't know other limits, no matter what (do other casinos do this?) so I think that really takes value away from blind stealing situations. This is equivalent to fighting over just the BB and losing the SB. I had a guy that didn't want to chop with me so I explained how it really hurt us to play HU with that rake structure and he surprisingly agreed to chop then and in all subsequent hands. I of course also added that I either chop always or never and the choice was up to him. But I refuse to only play when he gets good hands and doesn't want to chop.

Somehow I made this post into chopping. Thats what happens at 3am I guess.