How innefficient must the spread be?

[Dan82]

So I calculate my line, how far off must the vegas line be to place a bet? Lately, I have only been wagering if my handicapping shows the line to be off by 4+. Am I missing out on +EV opportunites? For example, tonight I only have one NBA wager. If I lower my threshold by 1 point down to 3+, I have three wagers.

[almostbusto]

if you are regularly finding games where your line is 4 off the market line. then its way way more likely your handicapping method is off than the vegas line.

your system still might be leading you to making right decisions though

[Dan82]

let me restate: 4 pts is my threshold. With this threshold, I only have one play tonight. I am beginning to think 2-2.5 + may lead to some more +EV plays.

[rjp]

Depending on how good your lines are, for anything under 10 poiints in the NBA you'll want at least a 2 point edge. If you aren't confident in your line, or there are questionable circumstances surrounding the game (injuries, motivation, etc.) then you'll want more of an edge.

[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
let me restate: 4 pts is my threshold. With this threshold, I only have one play tonight. I am beginning to think 2-2.5 + may lead to some more +EV plays.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you need to think about how accurate your line is. if your line is perfectly accurate then you would most likely be betting any edge no matter how small.

if your handicapping is only accurate within + or - 2 points, then your line really isn't even worth using, because the vegasline is going to be more accurate than yours most of the time.

so it comes down to how confident you are in your numbers. and if i were you, i wouldn't be that confident if you are often finding games often by 4 points in basketball

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
So I calculate my line, how far off must the vegas line be to place a bet? Lately, I have only been wagering if my handicapping shows the line to be off by 4+. Am I missing out on +EV opportunites? For example, tonight I only have one NBA wager. If I lower my threshold by 1 point down to 3+, I have three wagers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could I suggest recording all the results for all the games you handicap (whether bet or not) and then you'll get a series of %s for every spread-difference and have a good idea of which of your predictions are plays and which are not. The huge number of games played in the NBA should allow you to profile things pretty quickly.

Lori

[Lori]

FWIW, half a point on sides is worth 8-10c or so, so <font color="red"> if </font> your spread is deadly accurate, 0.5-1 point differential would be plenty.

Lori

[MicroBob]

How many freaking games are you grading at 4-point difference?
This should be a fairly rare occurance I would think.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
How many freaking games are you grading at 4-point difference?
This should be a fairly rare occurance I would think.

[/ QUOTE ]

DS has a donktarded article on sportsbetting where he recommends betting at a min a 2pt NBA or NFL edge.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
How many freaking games are you grading at 4-point difference?
This should be a fairly rare occurance I would think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it should be very rare.

If I line a game 4 points different than the book, I start looking for reasons why I am wrong.