probability question, BASIC

[Performify]

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let's assume there are 1 million sportsbets placed a year where the bet is a Win/Lose with or without the spread.


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I don't understand what you mean by "where the bet is a Win/Lose with or without the spread".

If you're saying where the bet is betting on who wins and who loses, and is not offered with any odds, then its certainly not going to be 50%-50% on outcomes as I mentioned above - matchups like Pats v Detroit where its 90%-10% to win will skew your results if you've got 50% of the people playing Detroit.

Now if you're talking moneyline bets, where you'd be offered +790 to bet on Detroit and had to lay -870 on the Pats, then yes I'd agree your results would approach 50% winners 50% losers (here meaning winning / losing money on the season) on random distribution of picks. However its not going to be 50% - You're not being offered true odds at that +790 / -870 : if thats the line being offered the true line would be something like +/- 840 which would result in the small edge for the house on both sides of the bet which would result in an average result of everyone losing 1% - 3% of their money per bet placed.