NFL Week 13

[rjp]

YTD: 69-60-3 (+0.87 units; ROI: 0.67%)

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-133)

Tonight the Ravens have a chance to lock up the division title on the road against division foe Cincinnati. The Ravens, however, don’t figure to play with as much focus and intensity as the Bengals do.

These teams both want a win, but the Bengals are likely to want it more than Baltimore. Barring a major collapse the Ravens will lock up the AFC North, so in reality Cincinnati is fighting for their playoff lives–not Baltimore.

I missed the boat on this, as it opened at -2 and quickly moved to -3. You mathematically have a slightly higher expected ROI laying the 3 points at -108 odds, but most of this comes from the high frequency in which you push. As such, I prefer to buy down in this situation and lay 2.5 points at -133. Coming in last place with slightly less value is the Bengals money line.

[Dan82]

But wont Ray Lewis be just as angry on the road?

[rjp]

When is Ray Lewis not angry? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TomG]

I see Baltimore +3 covering often enough to be profitable, but Cinci winning outright.

[rjp]

YTD: 70-60-3 (+1.62 units; ROI: 1.25%)

Detroit Lions +14 (-115)

The Patriots are a much better team than Detroit, but it’s likely the Lions will play with more motivation in this game. The Patriots coaching staff does a good job keeping their team from overlooking an opponent, but it’ll be a tough task covering 14 points at home with a game against a surging Dolphins team coming up next.

Buffalo Bills +6 (+100)

The Bills are coming off a big win over Jacksonville, while this is a divisional sandwich game for the Chargers. If the Chargers play with focus then they should win this game, but even if they play up to their full potentional the Bills and home field weather should cover 6 points at these odds often enough to be profitable.

Tennessee Titans +8 (-110)

The Titans got lucky last week, and it’s likely they were looking ahead to this big game against the Colts. Peyton & Co. are likely to win, but the Titans won’t be an easy out, so to speak.

New York Jets -102

At 6-5 the Jets are still fighting for a playoff spot. Although they’re on the outside looking in, they should play with focus often enough for them to win this game often enough to be profitable at this price. Even with the game against Buffalo coming up I don’t expect the Jets to overlook the Packers.

Miami Dolphins -101

The Dolphins are on a roll, and they’re likely playing a little better than you’d expect them to in the future. Both teams need this game if they have any shot at the playoffs, and with recent play I figure the Dolphins should be favored to win this game.

Oakland Raiders -2.5 (-132)

This is a typical garbage game this time of the year, but the Texans will have a tough go of it without their starting center. The Raiders are rightly favored to win this game, and I figure they’re slightly undervalued. As with the Bengals I prefer to buy to 2.5 at adjusted odds.

Carolina Panthers -159

The Panthers let one slip away last week, and it’s likely the Eagles are about to slip away from a playoff spot. Both teams should be focused for this game, but the Panthers are simply the better team that should win often enough to be profitable at this price.

[rjp]

Washington Redskins +114

The Falcons have been playing about as bad as anyone recently, but it’s not something that you can expect to continue over the long term.

In this matchup, however, the Falcons aren’t going to have a gimme game, and when the Skins were favored I passed. Plenty of money likes Atlanta, but getting these odds with the Redskins figures to provide a positive expectation.