25/50nl Play this draw with 300bb's (PART TWO, turn play)

[mindless]

Theoretically, if we check the turn through for whatever reason (if he checkraises he's pot committed and calling a shove in all likelihood) and the river comes a non-diamond ten, how do we feel about getting all the money in the pot, as AK suddenly gets very scary? I know it's not a big consideration, but it just popped into my head, as I was thinking about the likelihood of getting checkraised vs. the probability of hitting on the river vs. the probability of getting paid off on the river and whatnot.

If we bet 2500 and he folds, win 3800
If we bet 2500 and he checkraises, he probably calls a push and thus you've got maybe 13.5 outs (sometimes he has a set/higher flush draw or something) giving you about 30% equity, or you're losing something like 4K on average if my math is right.
If we bet 2500 and he calls, you'll still hit 30% of the time on the river. Let's say you check behind if you miss. When you hit, let's say he calls a 5Kish bet. So 30% of the time you win 11K.

Summarizing, bet 2500:
if he folds 25% of the time, checkraises 25, and calls 50 (I pulled those numbers out of my ass) your EV of betting is:
.25*3800 + .25*(-4000) + .5*.3*11000-2500 = -900. That's not so good. Of course, play with those percentages. It's really bad if he checkraises us frequently. I think I also assumed that he'd call all the time a river bet there. So, play with the precentages and you can see what you like.