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#32
11-30-2006, 12:32 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
preflops stats shouldnt be used to assess peoples postflop play. they are called tagfish for a reason.
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#33
11-30-2006, 12:47 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
R u kidding me? All in! 44 is complete cooler obv. U think he has 99? Get real. What kind of hands, no matter how deep, dont try to get more $ in on this flop with set. This is almost ALWAYS flush SHOVE plz u have 8's full, and only 99 and 44 beat u, which im 98% sure he has everyone and anyone goes broke on this hand im like positive u have him PLZ shove river.
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#34
11-30-2006, 01:20 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
Push it in man. It is a cooler if he has you beat. This is 100NL, many players will play the nut flush this way.
While I am slightly emberassed to post this I feel like I play pretty well. I am working to get better and I suppose my stats will change over time. I have seen uglier stats with a positive win rate. Why do y'all believe that specific VP$IP and pfr stats make the overall player? I still don't understand that. 
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#35
11-30-2006, 01:30 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So that's how u talked yourself into folding? do u know how many boats ur beating? [/ QUOTE ] lol, since so many 20/10s play 48, 49, and 43.. [/ QUOTE ] Well if I was 250BB deep I'd play 'em. I'd prolly hit a boat and bust an overpair/straight/flush/trips!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#36
11-30-2006, 01:35 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
I agree people are just being kneejerk and not explaining themselves enough. And I think this is a somewhat hard decision. That said, a flush could definitely take this line if he doesn't give you enough credit to lay down an overpair here. 99 and 44 are in his range but I think a few flushes are going to be as well, and the balance of hands is such that you have to at least call here. A flush might be committed enough to call a push, but I'm not sure there are enough in his range to make pushing better than calling.
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#37
11-30-2006, 01:38 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
While IMO this is shove 100% of the time on the river in 100NL game, why don't you resort to a little math to help you make a seemingly "difficult" decision.
After the river bet there is $289 in the pot and it only costs you $110 to call. Even if you only have him beat 30% of the time your call is +EV. From what I understand reading is about putting the opponent on a range of hands and assuming villain could ONLY have 999 and 4444 is just giving him too much credit on his tightness and giving you too much credit on your read. Thus, even if you don't want to shove, the pot odds should make your call automatic. I just reread that and it sounded condescending and I apologize because I understand it feels to be in a situation like this. I'm definitely not good enough to insult anyone's game. I was just putting pot odds out there because no one really touched on that and I thought it could help make the call easier. Even though I'd push and get me 500BB
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#38
11-30-2006, 01:57 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
[ QUOTE ]
While IMO this is shove 100% of the time on the river in 100NL game, why don't you resort to a little math to help you make a seemingly "difficult" decision. After the river bet there is $289 in the pot and it only costs you $110 to call. Even if you only have him beat 30% of the time your call is +EV. From what I understand reading is about putting the opponent on a range of hands and assuming villain could ONLY have 999 and 4444 is just giving him too much credit on his tightness and giving you too much credit on your read. Thus, even if you don't want to shove, the pot odds should make your call automatic. I just reread that and it sounded condescending and I apologize because I understand it feels to be in a situation like this. I'm definitely not good enough to insult anyone's game. I was just putting pot odds out there because no one really touched on that and I thought it could help make the call easier. Even though I'd push and get me 500BB [/ QUOTE ] Ding ding ding, we have ourselves a winner. OP - if you got beat here then chalk it up to variance, and don't be results oriented. Like Darnold said, you should at least call the river bet, and expect to earn money in the long run by doing so. The push-or-don't-push-turn decision is not necessarily automatic, but you'll get paid off here more often than not. Trust me, no tight player ALWAYS plays tight, and no one can read hands with 100% accuracy without a hole card camera.
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#39
11-30-2006, 02:01 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
Regardless of stats, his flop play with top set does not convey solid to me, and if he does have top set, then that means he is perfectly capable also of calling that flop raise with the flush draw. Checking the turn is the next obvious step for him as he wants to trap and get paid. I'd be concerned about 99 since a NL $100 "solid" could play it this way, but I'd still shove because he'll have a flush a lot of the time. At the very least never fold this, ever.
Also, 21/10 means he raises only half of the time he enters the pot voluntarily correct? I've never used PT after it didn't run first time I tried it. Thx in advance.
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#40
11-30-2006, 02:05 AM
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Re: I think my boat just sunk in 250BB deep water
[ QUOTE ]
Regardless of stats, his flop play with top set does not convey solid to me, and if he does have top set, then that means he is perfectly capable also of calling that flop raise with the flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Raise/calling the flop with 99 would be perfectly acceptable here imo.
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