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#52
11-29-2006, 04:02 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
[ QUOTE ]
Well, that's kind of ridiculous. I meant, Fiksdal gave an assumption that states Hero has a 95% edge. You can't really disagree with his conclusion just because you don't like his assumption. [/ QUOTE ] Fair enough. Which is why I questioned the assumption, but said even taking it at face value hourly rate considerations might override the decreased expectancy. Also in his assumption he said: [ QUOTE ] Here is another situation where it is correct to fold AA preflop. (This one also happens extremely often) [/ QUOTE ] I seriously doubt this "happens extremely often." 
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#53
11-29-2006, 04:08 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
[ QUOTE ]
Also in his assumption he said: [ QUOTE ] Here is another situation where it is correct to fold AA preflop. (This one also happens extremely often) [/ QUOTE ] I seriously doubt this "happens extremely often." [/ QUOTE ] Ok, we can agree on that. But I think what he was getting at was that this TYPE of sitation does happen fairly often. Obviously, his example is at one extreme...but spots where Hero believes he has a +cEV situation but it is -$EV for some other reason do come up fairly often. For example, if Hero believes his skill edge in a heads up match is, say, 70/30, and Hero has 77 when his opponent moves all in on the first hand and accidentally exposes AK. That's a more believable version of this same type of spot. Obviously, its +cEV to call (and hourly rate considerations blah blah meow chow), but by taking the slight edge of a coinflip when you believe you have a 70% prizepool equity based on skill alone over the course of the tournament, you are arguably making a mistake. (Man I hope I constructed that correctly, my brain operates at roughly 50% capacity between Thanksgiving and New Years)
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#54
11-29-2006, 04:15 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, we can agree on that. But I think what he was getting at was that this TYPE of sitation does happen fairly often. [/ QUOTE ] This I can agree with. It comes down to risk versus long-term edge. The old "do I take the better side of a coin flip for my stack when I know my edge is greater" discussion.
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#58
11-29-2006, 05:24 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
Every few months this topic comes up. Every time someone thinks they're found some new, creative way to justify folding AA preflop. Every time, those people are invariably poker noobs who would be better served using their time and energy to actually improve at the game.
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#59
11-29-2006, 05:31 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
[ QUOTE ]
Every few months this topic comes up. Every time someone thinks they're found some new, creative way to justify folding AA preflop. Every time, those people are invariably poker noobs who would be better served using their time and energy to actually improve at the game. [/ QUOTE ] Best reply yet.
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#60
11-29-2006, 05:39 PM
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Re: folding AA PF...
Posted this hand a few weeks ago -- something like this had never happened to me. FPP satellite to the Sunday $215. Top 4 get tourney buy-in. 5th place gets nothing. I think the critical part of this hand is that shorty has already folded (and is going to get hit by the blinds on th next hand). Only one person is likely to call this push (me), and I could have called it out of spite without being in much danger.
Seat 2: Tru27 (5600 in chips) Seat 3: asa'srollin (1670 in chips) Seat 7: jcm4ccc (17190 in chips) Seat 8: dice77 (960 in chips) Seat 9: astan (4580 in chips) Tru27: posts the ante 50 asa'srollin: posts the ante 50 jcm4ccc: posts the ante 50 dice77: posts the ante 50 astan: posts the ante 50 asa'srollin: posts small blind 400 jcm4ccc: posts big blind 800 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to jcm4ccc [6h 5c] dice77: folds astan: raises 3730 to 4530 and is all-in Tru27: folds asa'srollin: folds jcm4ccc: folds astan collected 2250 from pot astan: shows [As Ah] (a pair of Aces)
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