NBA Overlays - November

[phifediggy]

good picks rjp, i'm with you on the heat and hornets.

[rjp]

YTD: 30-17-1 (+6.16 units; ROI: 13.11%)

Atlanta Hawks -3.5 (+102)

These teams appear to be headed in opposite directions since they last met. Atlanta has lost four straight, and while Toronto hasn’t been much better, the Raptors are coming off a big win over Cleveland at home.

In reality, however, Toronto isn’t very good. Thanks to Toronto’s win over Cleveland the Hawks figure to play with more intensity tonight. I figure Atlanta wins often enough to be profitable at this price. This line has now moved to -3 at most books, but I have a higher expectation getting -3.5 +102 over -3 -105 so I went ahead and bought the Hawks before the move.

Philadelphia 76ers +105

The 76ers are expected to have Iverson and Hunter back tonight, providing just the spark they need to get a much needed win. Chicago is looking for a win too, as they’ve got a nice losing streak going as well. Philadelphia is statistically the better team, but this game will come down to energy, and the 76ers figure to play with more tonight.

New Orleans Hornets -4.5 (-105)

New Orleans seemingly couldn’t get much to fall last time out against Phoenix. This will provide the Hornets with motivation they need to get up against a Minnesota team they just beat a few days ago. I expect New Orleans to win this game often enough to have a positive expectation with laying 4.5 points.

Cleveland Cavaliers +128

Both teams figure to play a focused game tonight, with Cleveland coming off a loss @Toronto and the Pacers coming off a loss @Orlando. If we were some how able to play this game under the same conditions over and over again I would expect each team to win ~50% of the time. As such, I have a positive expectation with odds of +128.

[rjp]

YTD: 32-19-1 (+6.23 units; ROI: 12.22%)

Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 (-110)

I’m buying Memphis overnight as I figure the Grizzlies blowout win tonight will likely lead to plenty of money moving this number down.

[rjp]

New Orleans Hornets +8 (+110)

The Hornets come into this game off another poor shooting night, while the Mavericks come into this game off a big win over the Spurs.

The team with more motivation and focus for tonight’s game is New Orleans, and they’re likely to play with more intensity than the Mavericks. The Hornets will be without Peja, and this should only help their cause, as a team playing without one of their “star” players is likely to play harder, while the opponent is likely to not play as hard. Peja is good, and if he were to miss an extended period of time then the Hornets play would expectedly decline, but in this game you are not likely to see much of a dropoff given the circumstances.

The Mavericks likely win this game, but the Hornets should cover 8 points often enough to provide a good return at +110 odds.

[rjp]

YTD: 33-20-1 (+6.14 units; ROI: 11.58%)

Denver Nuggets -4 (-110)

The Clippers are likely without Kahman for another game tonight, but Denver isn’t likely to letdown. They were beat by one point by the Clippers earlier in the season in LA, and the Nuggets should be motivated to correct (any) mistakes and execute a game plan that will lead to victory. Denver should win this game often enough to be profitable laying 4 points.

San Antonio Spurs -184

The Spurs should be focused for this game against Seattle, as they’re coming off a tough home loss to the Mavericks. A focused Spurs team is no match for Seattle, and San Antonio should win this game often enough to be profitable at this price. Laying the points, however, provides no value.

[Derek123]

Spurs are playing Seattle tonight.

[rjp]

Thanks. I just had my head wrapped around the Suns game. Both were similar. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rjp]

YTD: 35-20-1 (+7.59 units; ROI: 13.80%)

New Orleans Hornets -4.5 (-104)

The Hornets will likely be without Peja again tonight, but they've had trouble shooting the ball with or without Peja. At some point the Raptors will win a game on the road, but they will likely continue to struggle on the road. The Hornets aren't likely to continue shooting poorly as a team, and I figure they win this game often enough to have value with laying the points or taking the Hornets on the money line. I do, however, find more value with laying the points.

[rjp]

Sacramento Kings -220

The Kings catch the Clippers in a good spot tonight. Sacramento has been playing very well recently, while the Clippers look nothing like the team they were last year. Sam is banged up, Kaman won't play, and it's likely the Clippers will have a tough time matching the Kings intensity.

I find more value with the money line over laying the points.

[rjp]

YTD: 36-21-1 (+7.04 units; ROI: 12.35%)

New York Knicks +10.5 (+100)

This isn’t a game New York is likely to ever win. Cleveland is a much better team than the Knicks, but the Knicks are more likely to cover 10.5 points.

Atlanta Hawks -4 (-105)

Both teams are playing a back-to-back, with Charlotte getting a big win at New Jersey, and Atlanta suffering a 1 point loss to the Wizards.

Charlotte isn’t a team that is likely to win many games, and getting a road win is likely to cause the Bobcats to play with less focus. Atlanta hasn’t been too bad this year, and I figure they win this game often enough for the money line and point spread to be profitable. In this situation I find more value with laying the points.

Toronto Raptors +10.5 (-106)

Toronto notched their first road win last night in New Orleans. This will likely be a distraction for the Raptors coming into this game against Dallas. I don’t expect the Raptors to really ever win this game, but they are more likely than the Mavericks to cover 10.5 points.