tpnk facing strong bet - nl100

[n1nj4.br]

I called pf raise light, floated flop to bluff turn and rivered tp. Now the question is: can we call here? whats his range?

[Cry Me A River]

The more I think about this, the more I lean towards calling. Let's break it down street by street.

Villain raises pre-flop with a huge, huge range. Any pair, any connectors, any gap connectors, any two broadway. Any suited broadway Qx+. Any A or K. Maybe more.

On the flop he cbets anything he raised with. Your lack of a reraise tells him you have a middling/drawing hand given all the draws out there. You almost certainly raise 2-pair/set/straight. You also prolly reraise a big pair (if not preflop).

On the turn. Does he double barrel a lot? He may well slowplay a monster. Or check hoping to see a cheap river particularly with something like a FD with 2 overs. He calls, but does not checkraise. I'd expect him to either bet an overpair or checkraise an overpair but he may be looking for a cheap showdown, particularly if it's a small overpair like 88/99 and he's worried about a bigger pp. He may be floating if he thinks hero is betting light particularly if he has something like that FD+overs or a big combo draw.

River may well be a monster. Or Qxh. But it could also be something like AT or 66 or some busted draw using the Q as a scare card or assuming hero doesn't have much of a hand.

I don't think you're loosing a ton of value if you fold but I think calling is marginally better. Really thin though.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
There is nothing wrong with pf imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

It isn't profitable in the long run. No-one folds anything blind v blind.

[RiverHebrew2]

i'm stunned at preflop call, postflop call, and turn bet. Think on river... what do I beat here? Could he have A7 in this spot? Filled up w/ 33 or 55 and checked turn nuts? Whiffed flush draw? I advise never playing this hand all the way to the river again. If he thinks u bet/call kind of light, and this riv bet is like PSB, i would fold. Personally, looks like overpair or 7.

[Jehi]

Just to correct that 47%:
Hero needs to win 31% here to break even.
Pot is 36+29 = 65 so it is 65:29 = 2.24:1 pot odds. You need to win 1/3.24 = 30.85% of the time. Calculating the EV with 30.85% gives EV = 0.3085*65 - (1 - 0.3085)*29 = 0.

[JonnyCosMo]

Pull a negreanu... if it makes no sense then call. :-) weeee