99 vs short stack all in...call??

[Eyal]

60 left on a big 8$ + rebuy mtt. Prize pool approximatly 15k,when first place receives 4k, down to 45th-67$.
I chose to limp with 99 utg in order not to mess with the big stacks.
Mp1 is chip leader and from 2 orbits he seems very active limping or min raising. Sb pushed once or twice during these two orbits.
Any thaughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB (t21060)
BB (t46384)
UTG (t84038)
Hero (t44507)
MP1 (t97882)
MP2 (t149894)
MP3 (t21894)
CO (t22044)
Button (t40467)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t2000, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t4100</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t21060</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero folds, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: t27860

[geestyle]

Open push in future then you won't find yourself asking this question!

[zoobird]

This post would be better if you didn't show MP folding after you.

I think limping with 99 is bad...you should be raising to take advantage of fold equity.

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
Open push in future then you won't find yourself asking this question!

[/ QUOTE ]

Open pushing for 22BBs from utg. That can't possibly be right.

OP, you say MP1 is chip leader, but show MP2 with more chips. Based on the chip counts at your table you're in okay, but not great shape. I might have open-raised 2.5xBB myself. If the action was the same (MP raising and SB pushing) I could find a fold. I might also have played it as you did. Now you've got a decision.

This is read dependent. From your comments MP has been making these kinds of raises often, probably to applyconstant pressure on the short stacks, especially those in the blinds. When SB has pushed recently was it open-pushing or pushing over the top of MP? How has MP reacted when SB (or any other player) has pushed over his mini-raises previously? I think your options are fold or push. Flat calling is only going to cause MP to put you to the test. If you think MP has generally been FOS and SB is playing back with a marginal hand where you're, at worst, flipping then shove your chips in. Otherwise fold.

[Eyal]

Yes, my mistake, there has just been a huge hand between Mp1 and Mp2 and the tables have switched a bit although Mp1 is in top 5.
I saw Mp1 fold once or twice to short stack all ins after he raised x2.
So lets assume Mp1 will fold...what hands would you put Sb
on? Maybe 88+ ATs+ ?
and how do you do the calculations?

[geestyle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Open push in future then you won't find yourself asking this question!

[/ QUOTE ]

Open pushing for 22BBs from utg. That can't possibly be right.

OP, you say MP1 is chip leader, but show MP2 with more chips. Based on the chip counts at your table you're in okay, but not great shape. I might have open-raised 2.5xBB myself. If the action was the same (MP raising and SB pushing) I could find a fold. I might also have played it as you did. Now you've got a decision.

This is read dependent. From your comments MP has been making these kinds of raises often, probably to applyconstant pressure on the short stacks, especially those in the blinds. When SB has pushed recently was it open-pushing or pushing over the top of MP? How has MP reacted when SB (or any other player) has pushed over his mini-raises previously? I think your options are fold or push. Flat calling is only going to cause MP to put you to the test. If you think MP has generally been FOS and SB is playing back with a marginal hand where you're, at worst, flipping then shove your chips in. Otherwise fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

errr, yes, my mistake - didn't read post correctly - thought he had 10bb. 20+bb raise 3x.

[BigAlK]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, my mistake, there has just been a huge hand between Mp1 and Mp2 and the tables have switched a bit although Mp1 is in top 5.
I saw Mp1 fold once or twice to short stack all ins after he raised x2.
So lets assume Mp1 will fold...what hands would you put Sb
on? Maybe 88+ ATs+ ?
and how do you do the calculations?

[/ QUOTE ]

Use pokerstove which is a free download to figure this out, at least after the fact. I thought it would be a close call. Against this range it comes up with this:

172,942,704 games 0.511 secs 338,439,733 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.6050 % 44.93% 00.68% { 9c9h }
Hand 2: 54.3950 % 53.72% 00.68% { 88+, ATs+, ATo+ }

Your chances of winning are just shy of 46%. Based on the assumption that MP will fold if you call or you push to isolate then then you should do so. If you think SB's range is tighter (unlikely) then it gets closer.

[SuperUberBob]

Raise and don't be shy to get it in preflop.