Push on the Bubble?

[archcity]

Strange situation in a tournament last week. I'll try to set it up from memory.

Five players left. Game pays four, $75 to 4th and about $450 to first.

One of the stacks is being blinded out, the hosts wife who has played a bit before was catching amazing cards and had a huge stack of chips, but she had also been drinking and ended up passing out in her bedroom.

Blinds are 400/800. I had a pretty nice stack, but was card dead and the guy to my left was playing excellent big stack poker, and had been raising most hands, taking advantage of people waiting for the dead stack to disappear.

I was down to 2,000, the guy to my left probably had about 11,000, next guy probably 6,000, dead stack 800, guy on my right also about 6,000.

Now I'm in the small blind, so 400 on the table, plus the 800 big blind with 1,600 left in my stack.

A9o dealt to me. Folds around to me. Do I make an all in move here?

Things I was trying to consider. Dead stack is all in when the blinds come to her, but her hand plays, so if she happens to win, she survives for another round or two. And the blinds come back and hit me first, and possibly jump to 500/1000, it would be close.

If she does go out I get the $75 for 4th place but I have very little left to play with to improve. Basically I would need to get two-better cards in the next five hands to have any chance.

I am also thinking that if I am willing to go all in on the bubble, the BB will give me credit for a really good hand.

What's my move?

[stagersa]

it really depends what you want to do. Do you want to just finish in the money, or do you want to win the whole thing? I would probably push here and go for the win. You are ahead against pretty much anything that calls you here, unless someone actually wakes up with a hand. But saying that I would push and go for the win.

[ClonexxSA]

Im not sure I would push here.

The problem with A9 here is, even when called by a hand like J8 or something, you aren't much of a favorite and it is for your tournament life. The guy on your left has around 11k and already has 800 in the pot. If you push, it will be for 1600 more. He only needs to call 1400 to win a pot of 3200, those are good odds and with 11k in his stack he is likely to call you with close to any 2.

With an empty chair about to be put all in by the blinds, I will take my chances that they get blinded out and lose, rather then risk going out on the bubble and allowing myself to be beaten by an empty chair.

[Lottery Larry]

"Five players left. Game pays four, $75 to 4th and about $450 to first."

Was this a single-table tourney? What was the buy-in? Not sure that makes a difference, but..

"but she had also been drinking and ended up passing out in her bedroom."

That's just sad. Plus, drunks can be hard to play against in a tourney.

" the guy to my left was playing excellent big stack poker, and had been raising most hands, taking advantage of people waiting for the dead stack to disappear. "

This is important- was he coming back over the top of everyone, or just raising limpers? What is your general image?

"I was down to 2,000, the guy to my left probably had about 11,000, next guy probably 6,000, dead stack 800, guy on my right also about 6,000.
A9o dealt to me. Folds around to me. Do I make an all in move here?"

Well, you can't limp as I assume BB big stack will push... unless you WANT to play against the big stack, assuming his hand will be worse than yours.

"Dead stack is all in when the blinds come to her, but her hand plays, so if she happens to win, she survives for another round or two.
And the blinds come back and hit me first, and possibly jump to 500/1000, it would be close."

If you fold, you have T1600 left to make it to the next BB, with no fold equity- SOMEONE is most likely calling you if everyone is in the money.
Now, if the drunk stack survives, you'd have ONE hand left before you'd have to push in the BB (you do NOT have the option of folding to save T600-800 with at least 2-3x that amount out there) and even the absent drunk stack is calling you for T600 and a T3100 pot (if the blinds do jump)

So, you have at best THREE hands left after this SB hand to try to get a better hand. However, you'll have TWO players (the blinds) to get through EACH time that can make cheap T800-1200 calls to knock you out. With T6K stacks, there are a lot of hands that they might do this with, depending how much they are trying to pop the bubble.


"I am also thinking that if I am willing to go all in on the bubble, the BB will give me credit for a really good hand."

He shouldn't necessarily, it depends on your answer above.

Given all of that, I push here. Any fold equity now against one player is probably a better situation than you're likely to have. You need chips to have ANY chance of doubling up again to something playable that can survive several rounds and threaten people with.

In fact, I think I'm pushing here and HOPING the big stack auto-calls. You're going to need to gamble sometime, unless big pairs start falling from the sky in the next round. A9 is better than the average one-opponent hand AND better than the average Ace-x hand.

Push, pray you get called and survive, and then start playing for the gold (not the copper).

BTW- my guess is that you pushed, BB knocked you out.

[AbreuTime]

I think a push and fold are close here, although I would lean toward push. Sorry about your bad luck.

Perhaps you should emulated the guy on your left, and played more aggressively through the bubble.

[Precept2]

"even when called by a hand like J8 or something, you aren't much of a favorite and it is for your tournament life"

Even though you aren't much of a favorite, you are still the favorite. If you wait, you might make the money, and you'll most likely get your money in as a dog. I push and hope.

[TomBrooks]

You must be willing to die in order to live. Short stack will be out on the next blind but if she happens to win her last hand she will have 1600 and be tied with you and you might be going out first anyway. A9 is a good hand heads up. I was going to Stove it versus all hands but Stove has a new version and the download site is overwhelmed.