BIOTECH MADNESS

[jdoe]

A while back I made this post POST 1
Then I made this post POST 2

I decided to just buy. no options

I suspect:

1. That the FDA will grant approval on the item they are testing.

2. The shares of the stock will surge on the news. Based on the following data:

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 395,908
Average Volume (10 day)3: 696,575
Shares Outstanding: 26.78M
Float: 24.60M
% Held by Insiders4: 2.53%
% Held by Institutions4: 30.60%
Shares Short (as of 10-Oct-06)3: 6.32M
Short Ratio (as of 10-Oct-06)3: 17.5
Short % of Float (as of 10-Oct-06)3: 24.20%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 6.32M

3. I also suspect when the shares surge, they will get overbought and correct to a proper valuation and a big Pharma Co buys out the company in 12 months.


My question is how would YOU go about picking the right point to sell?

*I am not interested in a debate of points 1 2 or 3

[Scorpion Man]

Why do you think they will get approval.

[jdoe]

This is not intended to convince anyone to buy it. All conclusions are based on my opinion. Do your own DD.
***************************
I believe it will get approved for many reasons.

FDA approved a PHASE III - INFORMED CONSENT study on 720 trauma patients across the country. This means they are going to test this product on people without their consent. This created a firestorm of negative news stories about how awful it was to do to people. The FDA reviewed the DATA at many intervals along the way and decided to continue an informed consent study. If people were dying from FORCED polyheme injections the FDA would have stopped the study.

An Iowa senator tried to get the study stopped. He was unsuccessful.

NFLD purchased a building to manufacture their product. Why buy a building to make a product you can not sell.

There is a well documented story of Hank Williams Jr.’s Daughter’s life being saved in a trial of this product.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/...s-trials_x.htm

There is an interview of a doctor in Denver saying the product is worth an informed consent study. And he thought this product would save lives.

(Do a yahoo video search on Polyheme)

I tried to find any negative news about the study. There was an old study about some patients having heart attacks but there was an issue with the way the blood was administered, but nothing modern

The idea behind this product is that they will be able to inject an oxygenated blood substitute, that needs no cross-matching into trauma victims. Right now they use saline (salt water) the study will be used to determine if Polyheme is better than salt water

Some people know the results of the study, call options are off the chart.

Here is a wiki on it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PolyHeme

again don't buy NFLD without doing your own DD

jdoe

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


Some people know the results of the study, call options are off the chart.



[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think the call options reflect the results of the study, i.e. that top employees are risking insider trading convictions to make some extra coin? Note that that employees likely already will cash in if the study is successful, they have options. But you think they'll risk prison time to make a little more?

Also you have some other risks that you aren't mentioning. One is that the FDA says the study was successful, but it wants to see a bigger study before approving the product for sale. Secondly is that it turns out the market for the product is not as large as estimated due to some issues that haven't surfaced yet.

[jdoe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Some people know the results of the study, call options are off the chart.



[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think the call options reflect the results of the study, i.e. that top employees are risking insider trading convictions to make some extra coin? Note that that employees likely already will cash in if the study is successful, they have options. But you think they'll risk prison time to make a little more?

[/ QUOTE ]

Employees of NFLD no

Doctors, nurses, and paramedics in Thirty-two Level 1 trauma centers throughout the U.S. that were a part of the study....I think maybe.

There is a big Chicago hedge fund all over this (NFLD is nearby)

you wil have to admit that the options are out of whack


>>Also you have some other risks that you aren't mentioning. One is that the FDA says the study was successful, but it wants to see a bigger study before approving the product for sale. Secondly is that it turns out the market for the product is not as large as estimated due to some issues that haven't surfaced yet.<<




[/ QUOTE ]

This is Phase III results to be reported this quarter, there is no Phase 4.



How could the market not be huge? We are talking about oxygenated synthetic blood. If the FDA comes back with approval on something like this with a 26 mill shares out.

What do you think a company like that would be worth?

To get this product to market will take a long time, if the FDA repots positive results NFLD takes off like a rocket, there will be bumps in the road i am sure.

jdoe