losing streak

[mab_nyc69]

ive been playing for two years and thought i was doing pretty well. i am on a -3bb on 8,500 hands. 23.7% / 15.6% / 2.0%. there are obviously other stats that are important by my question is at what point is it not a bad run and amission to just being bad?

[Keepitsimple]

250BB downswing arent uncommon. But obviously you should analyze your game.

[mab_nyc69]

I felt ‘ive been playing decent, not great but decent. -3bb/100 hands over 8600 hands. Is this a big enough sample size to say I should just stop / drastically change my game or does this type of run happen to even good players? Below are some stats

Total hands 8650
Vpip 23.7%
Vpip from sb 27%
Saw flop all hands 26%
Saw flop not a blind 20%

Folded to sb to steal 82%
Folded to bb steal 69%
Folded bb to steal hu 66%

Attempted to steal 33.5%

Won $ when saw flop 41.8%
BB / 100 hands ($3)

Went to showdown 38%
Won $ at showdown 51%

Raised prefop 15.6%
Total aggression factor 2.04

Folded to river bet 40%
Check raise flop 136

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
I felt ‘ive been playing decent, not great but decent. -3bb/100 hands over 8600 hands. Is this a big enough sample size to say I should just stop / drastically change my game or does this type of run happen to even good players? Below are some stats

Total hands 8650
Vpip 23.7%
Vpip from sb 27%
Saw flop all hands 26%
Saw flop not a blind 20%

Folded to sb to steal 82%
Folded to bb steal 69%
Folded bb to steal hu 66%

Attempted to steal 33.5%

Won $ when saw flop 41.8%
BB / 100 hands ($3)

Went to showdown 38%
Won $ at showdown 51%

Raised prefop 15.6%
Total aggression factor 2.04

Folded to river bet 40%
Check raise flop 136

[/ QUOTE ]

Defend more from the BB. This doesn't constitute analyzing your game. Post your hands. Your downswing isn't uncommon, but you really need to post hands to know how good you are.

[mperich]

I just had a 400BB downswing over 25K hands. I know Im a pretty big winner in the games I play in. I won over 300BB today. Poker is swingy and you need to post hands or at LEAST a bigger sample size. Use the search function too.

-Mike

[car ramrod]

damn, 400 is rough. I just got a 250BB downswing over the last 20K hands and wanted to quit poker so many times.

Have you been at the limit long? My biggest issue was I just started 3/6 and hit this swing, so my confindence got shook. just curious

[mperich]

Been at 10/20 and 15/30 for maybe 400k hands =P

-Mike

[mab_nyc69]

thx for the feedback moose. when defending the BB, (i know its player dependent) are you re-raising or folding or will you cold call at times. I like to re-raise and then follow up with a bet every time regardless of the flop but i havent been doing this as much lately. also, do you do this from a SB steal attempt as well? thx

[Spicymoose]

[ QUOTE ]
thx for the feedback moose. when defending the BB, (i know its player dependent) are you re-raising or folding or will you cold call at times. I like to re-raise and then follow up with a bet every time regardless of the flop but i havent been doing this as much lately. also, do you do this from a SB steal attempt as well? thx

[/ QUOTE ]

If someone raises, and you call from the BB, it is not cold calling. I will only reraise if I have a really strong hand, and it is situation dependant. I might reraise ATs, or something like that. I am not sure what are optimal numbers, and it really depends on how good you are at postflop play. That said, you should be defending your BB at least 40% of the time in general, and against an SB raise, all but the weakest of your hands (J2o, T4o).

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I just had a 400BB downswing over 25K hands. I know Im a pretty big winner in the games I play in. I won over 300BB today. Poker is swingy and you need to post hands or at LEAST a bigger sample size. Use the search function too.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for posting this. I am in the middle of a 30K break even streak in a game I have been a solid winner over 120K hands. It is really messing with my head but at least I am not losing. Sorry to take comfort in your misery but it does help to see good players come clean with big downswings.