Blackjack Mission...Opinions Encouraged

[Tragichero]

Alright, I honestly just finished this book yesterday and found more interviews about it. Kevin Lewis said that Blackjack teams still do exist, but you have to understand that these kids were in the top 1 percent in the terms of being smart. They went to MIT, which I believe is the hardest school to get into. You guys would have to get everything down on paper that you hope to accomplish and stick with it. And, you have to trust these guys more than anything, this is a lot of money we are talking about. Do I still think it's possible? Sure. Do I think it would be nearly impossible to be successful for a long period of time doing it today? Absolutly.

[Shaggy]

Ben,
Look into some of the articles at www.blackjackforumonline.com

-Shaggy

[Shoe]

One thing to note too is that you aren't going to want to play at the same casino 8 hours day, during the same times every day with the same shift working each time you play. Your probably going to want to do more of a hit and run style, and becareful that you don't get noticed too much. If that is the only casino in your area you will probably have to take some days off, and hit different shifts so you aren't as noticeable. Ideally, you would want to spread your play across several casinos, assuming you have a winning system figured out.

[BenJammin']

thanks for pointing me in the right direction shaggy.
and yes, we would definitely not be playing the same casino frequently, if we decide that it will be profitbale and worth the risk, then we will be driving and/or flying to other casinos on the east coast

[AvivaSimplex]

You guys are mathematicians. Calculate what your average edge will be for your big roller. The estimates I've seen are around 0.5% player advantage. Then estimate how many hands the big player can get in in an hour (10-20? I really don't know--it depends on deck penetration and other factors), and how much you can bet per hand (if limits are $200, then with doubling and splitting probably $250). So 20*250*0.005 = $25.00 per hour, split 4 ways with enormous variance. And we haven't even begun to subtract your expenses of travel and whatever the other 3 guys lose when playing at a disadvantage.

Unless you think your advantage would be much higher, you could make a lot more money doing something productive.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
we will be driving and/or flying to other casinos on the east coast

[/ QUOTE ]
if you're going to spend money on travel, then why concentrate on the east coast where all the BJ games are terrible? that and the <21 hurdle is a huge one to overcome if you're aiming for any truly profitable conditions.

also, you haven't mentioned that you are any of your friends read any real BJ strategy books yet. so far it's just the two Mezrich titles which are only semi-fact at best, have been read by hundreds of thousands of everyday non-gamblers and are currently in some stage of major motion picture production. is this really the basis of something revolutionary you're going to accomplish, simply because you have a little bit more money than the average high-school graduate?

most importantly, you are going to be deluged with heat regardless of whether counting is involved or not - simply because a bunch of baby-faced teens cannot fly below the radar at any casino without getting constantly carded by the same pit personnel that will eventually kick you out for whatever reason they feel like.

[Shaggy]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are mathematicians. Calculate what your average edge will be for your big roller. The estimates I've seen are around 0.5% player advantage. Then estimate how many hands the big player can get in in an hour (10-20? I really don't know--it depends on deck penetration and other factors), and how much you can bet per hand (if limits are $200, then with doubling and splitting probably $250). So 20*250*0.005 = $25.00 per hour, split 4 ways with enormous variance. And we haven't even begun to subtract your expenses of travel and whatever the other 3 guys lose when playing at a disadvantage.

Unless you think your advantage would be much higher, you could make a lot more money doing something productive.

[/ QUOTE ]

This analysis is basically correct. I would adjust the numbers though. If the big player (BP) is only coming in at Hi-Low TC's of >+2or3, then his edge is at least 1%. The 1/2% edge figure usually comes from a play all method that will not allow as big a bet spread as the BP technique. Also, you will want to use as big a spread as possible. Your max bet should be roughly 1% of your bankroll. 100k*.01=1000. Your min bet (i.e. what the spotters are betting) should be the table min and as small as possible. Hopefully you will be able to play a $5 or $10 Min - $1000+ Max table.

So lets look at that rough analysis. For simplicity, lets say the BP flat bets $1k. 20 hands per hour sounds reasonable for the BP. 20*1000*0.01 = $200 per hour divided 4 ways. Pretty good, but there is a lot of variance. Look into some simulation software before you seriously consider this endeavor. I would recommend CVData from www.qfit.com it'll run you about $120. Well worth it in the scheme of things.

-Shaggy

[playersare]

$1000 is the table max at turning stone - I highly doubt anyone is gonna get away with 20 big bets per hour when every one else is red chipping. I've seen $1K bets at foxwoods and they stop everything and wait for one, sometimes two floors to observe directly before dealing each time. TS scales to about 50% of whatever gross action Foxwoods or Mohegan takes per day (if even) so you can see how improbable this plan is.

also bear in mind the CTR's that will be generated for all chip redemptions over $10K at a time. if you remember, one of the biggest roadblocks for the MIT team was the actual cashing in of their winnings.

[jetfish]

Can you do it? Absolutely.
If you have the financing, motivation, and skill to pull it off profitably, you'd make a lot more money just starting a business, or finding a softer spot.