#1
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tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
i like this one. i can see why people would take the other side; tomlinson is on pace to top that mark easily, and he's on a huge roll lately, so he has "momentum".
i know TDs aren't exactly a poisson distribution, but the bet is breakeven at a poisson rate of 27 TD/season, which only one guy in history has topped. tomlinson may sit out the last game of the season or at least most of it. even so, i think 11 TD in 6 games is a lot to ask for. any significant injury is an automatic under. guys who put up a huge TD season tend to regress a lot the next year, simply because the number of TD opportunities tends to level out over time. (the exception is priest holmes, who got hurt and missed half the next year.) comments? |
#2
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
I'd bet under, depending on the odds you're getting.
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#3
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Only problem is that it seems he has a very weak schedule remaining aside from Denver. But depending on the odds it doesn't sound like a bad play since I agree he may sit out a bit late in the season depending on how SD is looking.
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#4
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Eh, I'd be way too scared to hit the under. With the way things have been going the past month, he hits the over in 3 games. Next up: vs. Oak
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#5
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Crockpot or Cielo is this bet being offered somewhere? If so where?
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#6
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
I gave crock my views earlier. I'm uncertain of whether he sits or not and the competition is pretty weak coming up.
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#7
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
does the fact that tomlinson skips all 4 games of the preseason have any sway over marty sitting him the final game if he doesn't need him?
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#8
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Isn't it quite likely that SD will be in the race vs. Denver for HFA all the way to the last game of the season? Seems like they might not coast at the end.
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#9
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it quite likely that SD will be in the race vs. Denver for HFA all the way to the last game of the season? Seems like they might not coast at the end. [/ QUOTE ] |
#10
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Re: tomlinson under 32.5 TD rush/rec
Actually, TD's are EXACTLY the kind of thing to use for a poisson distribution, as it happens one at a time, although for such a comparatively small # of iinstances, it's not the most accurate for analysis. I don't understand what you used to get 27 as B/E though.
Either way, if there isn't too much spread between the #'s, I 'd say since over 32.5 is the "sexy" bet, the value, if there is any, is definitely going to be on under. |
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