Deep. Monstrous. I Know What He Has. Should I Tell Him What I Have?

[orange]

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If he calls a flop raise, he sure as hell isn't folding to a blank turn shove.

Board: 6s 9s 8h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.3182 % 44.32% 00.00% { 8s7s }
Hand 2: 55.6818 % 55.68% 00.00% { KK+ }

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So you are suggesting he calls 100% of the time, and thefore NEVER folds (0%)?

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no, but i think he calls much more often than folds (given a flop raise, him calling).

[Haiku]

The more I think about it the more I like a shove here. He's minreraised preflop so he's obviously not a strong player, but also is probably a bit of a tricky/trappy player. This means we have very little FE on the flop since he's in love with his premium (good for us obviously) but may just call a flop raise so he doesn't "lose us" or whatever retarded reasons these guys have.

I think against this guy you shove and he doesn't even think about what you have he just snapcalls with AA and we profit from our massive equity advantage. Against a tougher opponent I'd just repop the flop because that's what I'd do with a set.

Edit: this shove is also probably really good for Shania as it would allow you to push drawy flops with strong made hands (sets/two pair).

[tubasteve]

Raise to just under the pot, hope he senses weakness and pushes. Snap call. Profit.

[bilbo-san]

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If he calls a flop raise, he sure as hell isn't folding to a blank turn shove.

Board: 6s 9s 8h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.3182 % 44.32% 00.00% { 8s7s }
Hand 2: 55.6818 % 55.68% 00.00% { KK+ }

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So you are suggesting he calls 100% of the time, and thefore NEVER folds (0%)?

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He might fold KK if the turn is an A.

Note that since pushing is a pretty big overbet, ($300 into a $230 pot or so), he needs to fold quite a bit for it to be +EV.

Pushing has an EV of +$65 if he calls (you win $830*.44 or $365, but you invest $300).

But the EV of CHECKING is 230*.44 or +$101.2.

The EV of pushing and him folding is $230.

Since the EV of checking is so high, he would have to fold a LOT (relatively speaking) for the push to be the highest EV scenario. Things would be different OOP, of course, where checking does not have this EV.

[Dan Bitel]

epdaws,

i cant give you an exact number, but i rly think he folds AA to a shove quite often (>10% of the time) on the flop and IMO, he folds to a PSR less than half that amount. These are obv just guestemates though.

2 other things: Firstly, we actually have nearer 64% equity on the flop (he doesnt always have As) and secondly, if he calls and checks turn, both betting and checking are good. betting certainly has FE, but after he calls flop, I think it would be HIGHER +EV to just check behind. It will also make it possible to get paid on the rivers we hit I think quite easily

[epdaws]

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epdaws,

i cant give you an exact number, but i rly think he folds AA to a shove quite often (>10% of the time) on the flop and IMO, he folds to a PSR less than half that amount. These are obv just guestemates though.

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I think he folds AA to a PSR literally 2% or less, FWIW.

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if he calls and checks turn, both betting and checking are good. betting certainly has FE, but after he calls flop, I think it would be HIGHER +EV to just check behind. It will also make it possible to get paid on the rivers we hit I think quite easily

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And consider that the following is true SO often: When you have position and raise a flop lead, and then check through the turn, it convinces your opponent to fire at the river no matter his hand.

[JimmyB13]

I'm raising flop pot, and calling a push...I think if just called, it is indeed a very interesting spot on the turn. I'm leading toward checking behind. As ep stated, villain will then instafire like almost river and if he hasn't pushed already, he will have huge odds to call. So if we hit, we call his push or push over a lead, and this includes hitting trips or two pair, as we can almost certainly at that point put villain on one large pocket pair. If this monster draw wasn't meant to hit, then we can safely fold to river bet. Also, if one of our str8, flush or two pair and villain is scared and checks, he will be very suspicious of our river action and try to snap off a bluff.

Basically, I don't think checking a bricked turn behind will keep the final pot that much smaller then bet/pushing turn when we hit, and it allows us to escape for the minimum of the flop raise when we brick both streets.

If he calls flop and donks turn, then I suppose we're calling/pushing, but we have to hit river 'cuz he's not folding if he hasn't pushed already on turn.

--JimmyB13

[Tickner]

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If he calls a flop raise, he sure as hell isn't folding to a blank turn shove.

Board: 6s 9s 8h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.3182 % 44.32% 00.00% { 8s7s }
Hand 2: 55.6818 % 55.68% 00.00% { KK+ }

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So you are suggesting he calls 100% of the time, and thefore NEVER folds (0%)?

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no, but i think he calls much more often than folds (given a flop raise, him calling).

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That's fine.

Assuming we are 45% to win on the turn if he calls...

We raise flop to $100, pot is now $225 when he calls. We have $298 behind.

if x = probability he will fold...

P(x) = 225x + (1-x)(.45(225+298+298) - .55(225+298+298))

P(x) = 0 where x = 26%

So if he folds 26% of the time we break even on the push.

Can someone check to see if theres an error in my equation?

Hes getting less than 2-1 on a call and we are representing a strong hand.

Discuss?

-Tickner

[Dan Bitel]

tickner,

its not about breaking even tho, its about the higher EV between a push and a check

[curtains]

I would definitely raise, and definintely wouldn't push. I would raise, hope that he reraises, and hope that he has him in it to fold if I move allin. If he doesn't then who really cares, we have huge hand.