QQ facing a mini-raise and then 4-bet

[Luke]

$200 buy-in, $1/$2 blinds, 6-max at Full Tilt.

Reads:
Villain is UTG and I have him at 25/9/0.9 after 70 hands. We've been playing together for about 40 minutes but we haven't really tangled together beyond a you limp, I raise, I CB and you fold situation. And even at that, it hasn't been frequent or all that noteworthy.

Preflop:
So UTG ($192) mini-opens for $4 (something I've never seen him do that before). UTG+1 ($80), a new player to the game and poster calls for $2 more.

Folded to me ($292) on the button and I make it $14 to go with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds fold. UTG makes it $30 to go, poster folds and it's back to me for $16.

I scratch my head, see that I'm getting a little bit more than 3:1 immediately on my money and determine that I can almost certainly get more than $160 back if I flop a Queen. So I decide to call, take a flop and see what happens.

Flop:
6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (Pot = $67)

Villain leads out and bets pot at $67, leaving himself with $95 behind. I have him covered.

My decision:
Push, call, or fold?

Secondary question:
Does your play change if you held KK?

[j831526]

This smells like a trap. I frequently see some players only raising to 2x BB with a weak raise, but they never seem to reraise. Without the reraise, he might have something like jj, tt, or 99 and think his overpair is good. This sequence looks like AA or KK. Folding JJ would be easier, but folding here looks right too.

As for part 2 I'm probably losing my stack to AA. It's hard to lay down KK to an unthreatening board.

[Luke]

Board: 6s 5s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 12.8788 % 10.61% 02.27% { QhQs }
Hand 2: 87.1212 % 84.85% 02.27% { KK+ }


Board: 6s 5s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.5065 % 09.74% 08.77% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 81.4935 % 72.73% 08.77% { KK+ }

[ QUOTE ]
This sequence looks like AA or KK.... As for part 2 I'm probably losing my stack to AA. It's hard to lay down KK to an unthreatening board.

[/ QUOTE ]

So notice that if you give him a range of only KK and AA, it matters very little if we hold QQ or KK. Our equity isn't much different and either way, no where near enough to warrant a call.

If you sprinkle AKs into his range, you're still not getting good enough odds to call (assuming he'll be all-in on the river and thus you need to win a little more than 42% of the time for it to be neutral EV):

Board: 6s 5s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.5057 % 24.30% 02.21% { QhQs }
Hand 2: 73.4943 % 71.29% 02.21% { KK+, AKs }


Board: 6s 5s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.9966 % 25.69% 07.31% { KhKs }
Hand 2: 67.0034 % 59.70% 07.31% { KK+, AKs }


It's not until you add in AKo also that your equity is good enough to warrant a call. But is AKo making a PSB on the flop almost 100% of the time? Doubtful...


Board: 6s 5s 4d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.5314 % 44.30% 02.23% { QhQs }
Hand 2: 53.4686 % 51.23% 02.23% { KK+, AKs, AKo }