"How many hands do I need to play..."

[Webster]

Very interesting post - a little confused over the "set's of 100" or actual hands.

If I have 31,214 hands played is that 312 in column B2 or should I put 31214. Can't wait to get home and plug in some numbers.

[astrodon]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the limitations are. I'm thinking that once your SD levels off, it should be safe, but I'm not 100% sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

But certainty is not what this is about; confidence is and 95% is usually good enough... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[nofutures]

For the germans out there. The german excel -forumla goes:

=A2-STANDNORMINV((1-A4)/2)*A3*(1/WURZEL(B1))

[$hort$tacked]

awesome post

[Adde]

I was looking for this excelent post by Homer, and thought I might as well bump it.

Adde

[Iq75]

[ QUOTE ]
For those working in BB/100 and Pokertracker:

A1: Hands
B1: Hand Count from PT
A2: EV/100
B2: BB/100 from PT
A3: SD/100
B3: SD/100 from PT session tab, 'more detail' button.
A4: Confidence Interval
B4: an integer between 0-99 (note: Homer originally used 0-.99)
A5: Upper Bound
B5: =B2-NORMSINV((100-B4)/200)*B3*(1/SQRT(B1/100))
A6: Lower Bound
B6: =B2+NORMSINV((100-B4)/200)*B3*(1/SQRT(B1/100))

[/ QUOTE ]

for the Finns:

B5 =B2-NORM.JAKAUMA.NORMIT.KÄÄNT((100-B4)/200)*B3*(1/NELIÖJUURI(B1/100))

B6 =B2+NORM.JAKAUMA.NORMIT.KÄÄNT((100-B4)/200)*B3*(1/NELIÖJUURI(B1/100))

[rjacobs003]

Question on this. Would the SD/100 then effectviely be the variance you experience in your win-rate? Are there bechmarks for where this number should settle?

[uDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Question on this. Would the SD/100 then effectviely be the variance you experience in your win-rate? Are there bechmarks for where this number should settle?

[/ QUOTE ]

Variance= SD^2

For limit Hold'em, a typical SD~16 BB/100. For other games, try searching the appropriate strategy forums for stat posts.

[3N1GM4]

I just plugged some numbers in from a bout of micro stakes games:

Hours: 137.58
EV/hr: $1.85
SD/hr: $8.6349

With these stats it's saying I have a 98.7% certainty of being a winning player at this level (i.e. Lower bound >= 0) This seems odd for such a small sample... is it right?

(Edit: NLHE, btw)

[3N1GM4]

Anyone?