Desperate for help

[JBMSweden]

Long story short - everything is falling apart and I dont know what I am doing wrong.
Background: 0,5/1 to 1/2 to 2/4 grinder for the last 18 months. Biggest downswing 140 BB before...now I am at 650...and therefore getting desperate...

I know yopu want me to post hands but Ill show some PT numbers and pls tell me what you think and if there is something specific that sticks out.
Read and reread loads of literature - nearly everything by Sklansky and Miller and a bit of Harrington and King Yao - in short, I am not a retard...at least I dont think so but I am beginning to wonder...

Hands: 20 976 (small sample, I know)
VPIP: 23,46
VPSB: 33.67
FoldSB to Steal: 83,50
Fold BB to steal: 60,46
Fold BB HU: 54,96
Att to Steal: 32,00
Steal success: 24,00
Wopn when saw flop: 42,82
WTSD: 35,44
WonSD: 53,12
PF raise: 15,8

Action on flop after PF raise:
Raise 12,58
Bet : 65,60
Call: 8,37
Check: 8,62
C/R: 1,08
Fold: 3,75

Agg Factor (no pre-flop numbers included):
Flop: 2,82
Turn: 2,69
River: 1,46
Total: 2,44

Fold to river bet: 35,44
C/R: 1,56 (flop 73.46, turn 20,00 and river 6,54)

Postional numbers:
Pos-VPIP-BBWon/hand

Btn 27,05 0,13
CO 19,62 (0,10)
MP 17,66 0,05
UTG 14,44 0,10
BB 20,58 (0,10)
SB 31,16 (0,20)


I know I dont check raise enough (at least I think so), my aggression might be on the low side (especially the river) and I fear I might try and steal to many pots.

If anybody can see anything I would be so grateful!

Sincere thanks,

A very desperate and unhappy and soon crying Swede

[DasBusen]

Something does not work out well for you. But you are not alone. Only a few percent beat the games and make a living from it.

You should try to limit your swings. Best way to do it, is to move to full tables and play abc-poker according to the books you read. When you feel more comfortable and have a good feeling for the game, mix it up and try shorthanded. Nothing beat experience and try to get it the cheapest possible way.

I have never used pokertracker or statistic (besides my own notes about earnings)so I can not comment on that.

[JBMSweden]

Full ring might well be easier to beat but if I have been a winner for nearly 18months (over 300k hands) I either have catched some leak disease or I am running terrible bad...

It might be good going to Full Ring but Id rather try and plug leaks in my 6max game...

Thx for your thoughts!

[Guruman]

go to Tommy Angelo's site and read the article on tilt and reciprocality.

read the faq here and in the micros forum. Post hands here and in the micros forum - there are lots of very good players in both spots that will help you a ton.

do the handswaps.

drop down in limits and play a little headsup if you can. figure out which turns and rivers you can fold safely without getting run the hell over.

etc.

[giddyup]

What limit have you lost 650 BB's at? I mean, variance is one thing, but 650 BB's is quite a lot. If you sincerely think you used to be a winner, then you should compare your previous stats with those you are now losing with. How many hands had you played before this massive losing streak? Your preflop stats look good, but I really don't see anyone being a winning player after losing 650 BB's unless they drastically change their postflop game. I don't know what your postflop game is like, so post some hands and we'll see.....

[DasBusen]

In my opinion, in 6-max, everything goes and you play your opponents, you play your tilt and you play also sometimes your cards.

The leak you want to plug is not a technical question. It is a holistic approach. Only you will realise when to three-bet 22 and where to cap 69s; where to fold AK and where to 4-bet the turn on a pure bluff. No one can tell you when to do what when you post hand histories. Only you will know how to play right in the context of your own personality and the specific game you are in.

If I post handhistories here, most people will think I play insane and that I am a fish (That is the reason the real fish call me down and I make my living.). Why so? Because analyses of handhistories can never take in to account all the different and complex aspect which are involved in a specific poker game.

Well, fellow swede, the only reason I said that you should try to play full ring is that a downswing of 650 BigBets indicate that you don't do many rights at the tables and obviously can't be comfortable.

[JBMSweden]

As mentioned above I had 300k hands before this streak...and that was at a winrate of about 2,2BB/100 hands.

Ive compared the numbers and they are more or less identical...except won at SD and checkraise (which has fluctuated between 1.76-2.89 on a monthly basis)...




However, AA has dropped from 2,79 BB/hand to 1,2...and KK from 1,94 to 0,90 so there is obviously a large degree of pure bad flops and suck outs with my good hands...

And there definitely has been some tilt but I am usually very good at emotional control and maybe the tilt factor could account for a maximum of 100BB...

Ive even constructed a spreadsheet to compare what the outcome should have been with the hands I received compared with the actual outcome...Not nice reading...lol...

Either every player has figured me out at FT or something else is very wrong...might even start complaining about comspiracies and such soon...lol...

I am now at 0,5/1 and have lost another 45BB...

I lost 250BB at 2/4, went down to 1/2 and lost another 400BB and have now gone down to 0,5/1 and started glancing at 0,25/0,50 and also considering the piece of fine rope I have in the garden shed that is probably excellent to hang myself from...

[JBMSweden]

You might have a point and I definitely agree that one has to mold the play depending on your customers...

And perhaps Full ring is the answer...

But somehow I feel that 300k hands winning at 6max ought to be a guarantee that I am not a losing player...However, I mioght have been on a VERY long winning streak...lol

[JBMSweden]

Just played a hand...maybe badly..I am kind of low on confidence...

6handed...

Btn is major stealer with 22pfr and 43% attempt to steal..

He openraises, SB folds and I 3-bet with Q9s...wrong?

Anyway, flop comes K97...rainbow..

I bet, he raises and I call (should I 3-bet?)..

Turn comes 9...

Btn bets, I raise, he 3-bets and I call (fearing he might fold if I cap)

River comes A and I figure this good as he could have AK and a whole range of lovely A-hands I beat...

River is capped and yep - you guessed it - he had KK...

Should I have slowed down?
Do I just call this hand down against a 38/22/3.5 kind of player?
Should I always look for monsters under the bed?

[DasBusen]

lol

What do I know what opponents you face. Both fold, call and raise is correct play preflop. It depends...
When he raises you on the flop, you have to figure you are beat and can fold. If you think he is a loose maniac type (like me), then it is hard to not call the raise...especially when the pot is a bit big.

If he is a very bad player (have a read on him?), you can go on and cap the river. But against normally sane players, it is just a river check - call, given the action on the turn.

Against some players in some situations I had capped this hand on every street. Against others, I had played it conservative. A fold preflop could be right.

It is not really any point to look at one single hand. A specific player might also play very different depending if he had sex or not before the game or are hungry...

It is also up to you. Your swing will be higher if you play loose and aggressive. Honestly, I would not have cared about this beat when I play. I care more if I lose because of bad reads overall (Very important. It does not matter if you make some bad reads or plays. It is the Overall reads and play who counts.)....not because he was lucky to have a good hand or hit it hard.